Some of the global markets have taken more than a 1% hit today, filtering through the iShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM). This index has been followed closely as it has been coiling for years. The current bias is to the upside, but on the weekly chart above, there is a rejection off the TDST Resistance level at 41.85 and in danger price flipping bearish if today’s close is below 40.74. This puts the EEM back into coiling stage once again, as the Ukraine – Russia spats continue to disrupt markets. Notice the absence of TD Countdowns in the charts – another characteristic of a sideways market.
US equity markets are currently down in the early in the trading session. Many indices are trading near neutral/bearish inflection levels where it will dictate changes in the daily and weekly chart outlooks today.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if SPX closes below 1871.89, the daily price flip.
On the 4 hour SPX chart, all overlapping counts are notated. There are two TD Sell Countdowns @13 and the single TD Sell Setup @9 – all clustered in a tight range. While this signifies short term price exhaustion, all is missing is a bearish price flip from the SPX daily (also at price exhaustion levels) to produce a bearish case to at least challenge the recent lows.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if SPX closes below 1871.89.
All the overlapping counts on the daily SPX also has been notated with the back-to-back “13’s”. The market would have to do some serious heavy lifting to rally the markets from here without some kind of price consolidation. The one momentum indicator holding the SPX up is TD Sell Setup, which is still active. A close below 1871.89 will negate it and upside momentum is considered broken.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Neutral if SPX closes above 1857.62 and accompanied by either the Nasdaq closing above 4155.76 or the Russell 2000 closing above 1151.81 (updated April 21st).
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1848.36, Dow closes below 16457.66, Nasdaq closes 3771.48, and Russell 2000 closes below 1163.64 (updated April 2nd).