Friday, April 25, 2014

ImageSome of the global markets have taken more than a 1% hit today, filtering through the iShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM). This index has been followed closely as it has been coiling for years. The current bias is to the upside, but on the weekly chart above, there is a rejection off the TDST Resistance level at 41.85 and in danger price flipping bearish if today’s close is below 40.74. This puts the EEM back into coiling stage once again, as the Ukraine – Russia spats continue to disrupt markets. Notice the absence of TD Countdowns in the charts – another characteristic of a sideways market. 

US equity markets are currently down in the early in the trading session. Many indices are trading near neutral/bearish inflection levels where it will dictate changes in the daily and weekly chart outlooks today.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1871.89, the daily price flip.

ImageOn the 4 hour SPX chart, all overlapping counts are notated. There are two TD Sell Countdowns @13 and the single TD Sell Setup @9 – all clustered in a tight range. While this signifies short term price exhaustion, all is missing is a bearish price flip from the SPX daily (also at price exhaustion levels) to produce a bearish case to at least challenge the recent lows. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1871.89.

ImageAll the overlapping counts on the daily SPX also has been notated with the back-to-back “13’s”. The market would have to do some serious heavy lifting to rally the markets from here without some kind of price consolidation. The one momentum indicator holding the SPX up is TD Sell Setup, which is still active. A close below 1871.89 will negate it and upside momentum is considered broken. 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 1857.62 and accompanied by either the Nasdaq closing above 4155.76 or the Russell 2000 closing above 1151.81 (updated April 21st).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1848.36, Dow closes below 16457.66, Nasdaq closes 3771.48, and Russell 2000 closes below 1163.64 (updated April 2nd).


 

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4 Responses to Friday, April 25, 2014

  1. sopriscap says:

    I had a question about DeMark counts on the weekly SPX chart that I was hoping I could ask your help for some clarification. I have both Sequential and Combo on a 12 count on the weekly bar of March 7th.

    I have seen some people mark 13’s if a following bar makes a new high, regardless of where it closes. Following those rules, a 13 could be marked on one of the following weekly bars.

    However, SPX has not closed at a level to complete the Sequential or Combo according to the normal rules. Under your weekly counts are we still on a 12 count then? And therefore still need a close higher from the trading range to complete the trend exhaustion?

    Thanks.

    • Art says:

      Yes, I believe those who are recording a “13” are using TD Aggressive Sequential, where the current bar’s high is compared to the high of the prior two bars. This is an alternate version of the traditional TD Sell Countdown method where the current close is compared to the high, two bars prior. This would make sense where some charts might show a “13” where my charts show a “12”.

      Since I already use the traditional method, I prefer to omit the aggressive version just to avoid clutter. On pure conjecture, I’m sure TD Aggressive has a niche with certain markets.

      • Speed says:

        It’s referred , I think, to a TD Combo Version 2 where if the SELL CD reaches a 10 then the remaining three (11,12,13) only require closing comparisons with 13 being an Opening High. 😀

  2. sopriscap says:

    Thanks for the clarification on that.

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