Monday, April 21, 2014

ImageImageTwo major gauges of risk are still uncommitted to any particular side. The 10 year Treasury bond yield as represented by the weekly CBOE 10 Year Treasury Index (TNX) is hovering just above the TDST Support at 25.89 or 2.589%. The other risk gauge, US Dollar/Japanese Yen currency cross, is trading within it’s own range box as shown by the weekly chart. As long as economic barometers do not deteriorate or geopolitical efforts worsen, these markets should stay somewhat supportive for equities if their respective support levels hold. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice to avoid potential whipsaws.

ImageImageImageMuch has not changed since last week. The SPX is trading just under then stated 60 minute TDST Resistance level at 1869.66. Sticking with timeframe confluence, the 2 hour SPX has recorded a TD Sell Setup @9 to go along with the Shooting Star candle pattern on the 4 hour SPX chart, which indicates caution. As long as any selling can be contained enough to keep the 4 hour TD Sell Setup active, the short term remains bullish. Even if 1869.66 is broken to the upside, the looming “13’s” on the daily charts need to be reconciled first.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1830.61.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 1857.62 and accompanied by either the Nasdaq closing above 4155.76 or the Russell 2000 closing above 1151.81. 

ImageImageImageImageThe SPX trading range has reinforced itself into the weekly charts, as the TTM_Squeeze indicator just started in the red for the week. It’s still not the time to get overtly bullish since there are unfinished “13’s” in TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell looming above. Both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are on TD Buy Setups @4 and both have a decent chance to see qualified “9” count TD Buy Setups. For simplicity sake, it would be beneficial if they did. The Dow is also in a volatility squeeze, using the Keltner/Bollinger bands in lieu of the TTM_Squeeze.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1848.36, Dow closes below 16457.66, Nasdaq closes 3771.48, and Russell 2000 closes below 1163.64 (updated April 2nd).


 

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