Thursday, April 17, 2014

Thursday is the last trading session for the week, as Friday is an exchange holiday. Options expiration, which would normally be due tomorrow, is moved up one day to Thursday to compensate for the Good Friday observance. 

It’s not a perfect picture situation when an on-going TD Setup is interrupted prior to a “9” count. That’s what happened yesterday when the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 did not record a “9”, erasing the previous active TD Buy Setups. As an aside, the Russell 2000 mini futures (TF) did manage a TD Buy Setup @9. Therefore, it may serve as reference at some point. 

Between finished TD Setups and alternating price flips, all characteristics of an indecisive market, the next best method is to locate even shorter timeframes for reference points. Since the S&P 500 (SPX) 60 minute timeframe is the most expressive in revealing all the TD Sequential counts, it becomes the primary chart to determine the market’s next intention.  If this is a “sell the rallies” moment, then it should commence early in the session. Also note the weekly SPX bullish price flip stands at 1866.52, doable for today. Charts below. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice to avoid potential whipsaws.

ImageImageOn the 60 minute SPX (top chart), there is a qualified TD Sell Setup @9 just under the 1869.66 TDST Resistance. The interpretation is the SPX should fail at this point and at least retest the lower boundaries of the range. A successful retest above 1842.98 would keep the current TD Sell Setup active. Movement above the TDST Resistance level would necessitate focus back to the 4 hour SPX chart, currently in an active TD Sell Setup @3.  


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Back to bearish if SPX closes below 1830.61, next Monday’s price flip. 

ImageNo call for an official bullish outlook unless the last SPX “13” count recycles higher. 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes above 1866.52 (updated April 14th).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1848.36, Dow closes below 16457.66, Nasdaq closes 3771.48, and Russell 2000 closes below 1163.64 (updated April 2nd).


EQUITY SETUP UPDATE: APPLE (AAPL)

Holding support. 

ImageApple’s recent history of respecting the TD Setups on the daily bodes well to those bullishly inclined. A qualified TD Buy Setup @9 trading above the 501.53 TDST Resistance level sets up another good risk reward long play. 


 

 

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