Tuesday, April 8, 2014

ImageWith the S&P 500 (SPX) barely negative for the year, the 1st quarter selloff is consistent with the Wayne Whaley scorecard above. The 2.60% SPX performance (3% or above is bullish) starting from November 19th of 2013 through January 19th of this year, signifies a “wildcard” year. There are still 3 quarters to go, but the monthly SPX is coming close to recording a reverse price flip, which will provide a path to an uneven trading environment for 2014. Earning season begins this week. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes above 1865.19.

ImageImageThe 2 hour SPX has recorded a TD Buy Setup @9. As long as the anticipated bounce does not close above the 4 hour SPX price flip level of 1865.19, the bearish outlook will hold, especially when the short duration TDST levels have been snapped below. Since the 2 hour SPX reached a qualified TD Buy Setup @9, the previous TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell will be invalidated, and those counts will be removed. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes above 1865.19, same as Short Term Outlook.

ImageImageImageImageTD Buy Setup counts on the indices are now all coordinated to the downside. Note the Nasdaq is testing the TDST Support at 4057.12. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes above 1841.13 at the close of April 11th (updated April 7th).

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1848.36, Dow closes below 16457.66, Nasdaq closes 3771.48, and Russell 2000 closes below 1163.64 (updated April 2nd).

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