Friday, March 28, 2014

ImageEmerging markets are on the move, and they all showing bullish confirmations, following daily and weekly price exhaustion as defined by DeMark indicators. The example above is from the weekly iShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM). Several ETFs for individual countries are also similar and will likely finish on bullish price flips for the weekly charts. All this is happening despite copper trading under the $3 mark, and the continuing slowdown in China. This is significant, and it deserves more coverage for next week.

ImageThe primary ETF for gold, GLD, was resigned to a selloff (see March 18th post) when the daily TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell were at or near qualification. Currently this selloff is a 50% retracement (114.46 to 133.69), and it should finish off a TD Buy Setup @9 today. If gold can remain intermediate bullish, look for signs of a reversal starting now. If selling is more severe, TD Buy Countdown will ensue, and GLD needs to hold the 120.73 TDST Support to hold on to the bullish case. If there is a break under 120.73, the interpretation is the bottoming process for GLD is still on-going, and the next levels of interest will be the weekly TDST Support at 114.46 and monthly TDST Support at 106.24.

ImageA redaction is necessary for bitcoin. The Coinbase chart never qualified a TD Buy Setup with a final “9” count as stated previously. Rather a bullish price flip took hold. But the main premise is bitcoin took a plunge when the PBoC (People’s Bank of China) threatened a trading ban, renewing TD Buy Setup and TD Buy Combo @8. With fresh lows, bitcoin is still bearish until some price exhaustion signals come together – preferably confluent signals.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish once SPX closes under 1842.81.

ImageImageOn the 2 hour SPX chart, it ended yesterday on a TD Buy Setup on bar 7, but with a strong opening, it may not be relevant, and everything is predicated on the second half of the trading session. SPX 1882.35 and 1842.81 are still the primary levels.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes above 1857.44.

ImageImageImageImageThe S&P 500 is currently near the price flip level, suggesting the close will dictate the next move for the SPX going forward. Note the proximity between price flips for the SPX daily and weekly charts too. The area surrounding the 1860 level holds meaning for both timeframes. The Dow, which usually has the outsized moves, is relatively quiet. Since both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 have mature TD Buy Setups, their respective TDST Support levels are drawn up.

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX weekly closes below 1841.13 OR if all of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1859.45, Nasdaq 4245.40, and RUT below 1183.03 (updated March 24th).

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1805.81 on the last day of March (updated March 3rd). 

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2 Responses to Friday, March 28, 2014

  1. Amador says:

    Hi Trekker – This is my first time posting a comment on your site; nevertheless, I always look forward to and enjoy reading all your post every morning. I greatly appreciate your time and kindness in sharing your post with those who enjoy reading your post. I do have one question for you. I noticed that you use thinkorswim as your trading platform as I do myself as well. If you don’t mind me asking, which study do you use to show the “TD indicator counts” on the thinkorswim platform charts? Your response would be greatly appreciated. Thanks, AC

    • Art says:

      Thanks a bunch! The studies I have are derived from the user defined studies (and still a work in progress). Therefore, they are not available on TOS. The best workaround is using “SequenceCounter” under the TOS study dropdown box. It’s a version of TD Sequential, and does a good enough job.

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