Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Some of the beaten down emerging market indices on TD Buy Setups are showing huge overnight gains. Turkey and Russia (RSX analysis March 17th) are bouncing off their respective weekly 9 count TD Buy Setups, signaling those markets have found at least a temporary bottom. Along with the global complex, US durable goods orders came in far more than forecasted, helping the S&P 500 with early gains. Based on the Keltner/Bollinger relationship outlined yesterday, a bullish element has entered into the picture for the daily chart. Nothing is certain as long as the SPX stays contained in the 1840-1883 box.  

ImageImageBitcoin took another step forward to legitimacy with an IRS ruling it would be considered “property” for tax purposes. Although bitcoin has tremendous opportunity, the landscape is still murky. There are many bitcoin clones (cryptocurrencies) such as Quarkcoin or the new Auroracoin, which was initially launched for the citizens of Iceland, furthering the murkiness. The CFTC is even looking into a swap agreement made this week. 

Staying with the basics, the major player in the bitcoin world is Coinbase. It merely acts as a “brokerage house” where you can trade and store bitcoin. When it comes to charts, Coinbase is the standard for tracking bitcoin. As for the DeMark indicators, Coinbase has recorded a TD Buy Countdown @13 on March 20th, and recorded a 9 count TD Buy Setup yesterday. This indication of selling exhaustion, makes a high probability that bitcoin may have bottomed. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if SPX cannot get below 1851.38 by mid-day. 

ImageThe 4 hour SPX chart barely missed a price flip by about a quarter of a point yesterday. With the morning rally, it is likely the active TD Buy Setup will not be relevant anymore, and the TDST levels, 1882.35 and 1842.81 are the main levels to watch. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes above 1872.01. Bullish if it closes above 1882.86.

ImageImageImageImageThe Keltner/Bollinger band relationship represented by the TTM_Squeeze indicator is on day 4. The interpretation now is any market catalyst can move the bull or bear needle. Keep tabs on the market moving news. Also watch the higher beta Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices as they are showing relative weakness. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX weekly closes below 1841.13 OR if all of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1859.45, Nasdaq 4245.40, and RUT below 1183.03 (updated March 24th).

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1805.81 on the last day of March (updated March 3rd). 

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