Friday, March 21, 2014

It’s quadruple witching options expiration today. The S&P 500 is generally quiet when they are confined to their support and resistance levels. But when S&P markets break support and resistance points, prices can be exasperated and volatile due to the nature of option expirations. At this moment, the cash SPX has broken through resistance. The possibilities from here are outlined below…

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish with a close below 1860.94 OR switch to bullish with a close above the 1882.86 TD Trend Factor.

ImageThe 4 hour SPX has been flatlining just under the 1873.94 TD Propulsion level, but oddly enough, there is an active TD Sell Setup that has not been “perfected” as of yesterday’s close. This morning’s breakout is sufficient to record a “perfected” TD Sell Setup since the potential bar 9 has surpassed bar 5’s high of 1874.14, and a reversal can be sought after. However, there is a technical problem. If the 1873.94 TD Propulsion Threshold is broken to the upside, this suggests a run towards the next target level at 1908.32, the TD Propulsion Exhaustion level. This is problematic. But rather than over complicate the situation, let’s say if SPX trades under 1873.94, this helps the bearish case. Another bearish move is if the SPX does record a final 9 count on TD Sell Setup, but trades under the 1882.35 TDST Resistance level. The bullish case is SPX continues to hold above 1873.94 level and it is especially bullish if there is a bull run past 1882.86. That would indicate the next target is 1908.32.  

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish with a close below 1841.13.

ImageImageImageImageShown are the major indices and their current counts. From unfinished TD Setups and alternating price flips, these markets are still looking for a momentum trend. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX weekly closes below 1836.25 (updated March 17th).

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1805.81 on the last day of March (updated March 3rd). 

 

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One Response to Friday, March 21, 2014

  1. hatman says:

    March 22nd is a ‘Bradley Date’ (potential turning date using astrological timing) and is/was expected to be a temporary peak in US markets. Interesting that the S&P shot upwards on the last trading day before that date, then reversed leaving a rather dark cloud on the chart. It also faltered just a few points below the ‘ideal’ target of 1888/91. It might make another attempt at 1888/91, but the trend should now be downwards into April 6th or so. Not expecting any fireworks – 1810 area might be the limit of any correction, with 1780 another possibility.

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