Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Today’s agenda for the Fed includes an updated monetary policy, a Janet Yellen press conference, and possibly some new guidance and economic projections. Traders are expecting the Fed to shift away from the Bernanke employment and inflation rate threshold levels to a more qualitative approach. Of particular market interest is whether the Fed will revise growth projections. If they lower it, that might bring a negative connotation for equities. If the market continues bullish, it has to get past the TD Sell Countdown/TD Combo Sell overhang on various indices before committing fully to the long side. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch back to bearish with a close below 1858.49

ImageImageThe 2 hour SPX chart is one count away from a TD Sell Setup but visually on the 4 hour chart, the SPX pulled slightly lower under the 1874 confluent level. All in all, it is really all about the Fed today and if SPX breaks the 1874 resistance cluster, then it will have to contend with the pending 13’s on TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell in the near future. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to back to bearish with a close below 1846.34. 

ImageFurther gains in the SPX today will mean TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell will hold significance and SPX could see 1900 before the next round of exhaustion points. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX weekly closes below 1836.25 (updated March 17th).

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1805.81 on the last day of March (updated March 3rd). 

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