Monday, March 10, 2014

There are a few technical barriers that need to addressed in the next couple days, mostly relating to emerging markets. The Shanghai Composite closed under the 2014.70 TDST Support level overnight and Copper is about to test lows that has not been seen in years. This has not bled into the developing markets but definitely shown up in the emerging markets. 

Yesterday was the 5 year anniversary of the closing low for the S&P 500. For 5 straight years, the SPX has turned positive.  The table below was shown here last month but it’s worth posting again given the anniversary. It’s the work of Wayne Whaley and if there are gains over 3% during the period between November 19th through January 19th, the remainder of the year is almost unanimously positive. But when the data collecting period records SPX gains between 0-3%, such as the 2.60% gain this period, the presupposition of a positive year is not promised. This needs to be tucked away as a constant reminder not to be complacent. Image——————————————————————————————

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL 

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 1873.91, the daily price flip.

ImageThe market has a few options today. On the 4 hour TD Sell Setup, it is still active and if the market can wishes to keep market participants on edge, the 9th bar can achieve ‘perfection’ by recording a price high equal to or greater than bar 7 at 1883.57. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 1873.91.

ImageImageImageImageThere are some indications the S&P 500 is not ignoring the TD Trend Factor at 1882.86. This will be clearer in hindsight, but for now, the daily SPX needs to produce a bearish price flip (1873.91) to take the first step in the beginning of a bearish trend. Price flips for the remaining major indices are as follows: For the Dow, a close below 16,395.88, Nasdaq 4351.97, and 1208.65 for the Russell 2000. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX weekly closes below 1838.63.

ImageImageImageImageThis is the week where the weekly begins to join forces with the daily timeframe as it relates to price exhaustion. TD Sell Countdown and/or TD Combo Sell can record the final bar 13 on the SPX this week. The Nasdaq is on the same ’13’ path with TD Sell Countdown, and the RUT has already recorded a 13 on TD Combo Sell. It’s all heavy lifting from here. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1805.81 on the last day of March (updated March 3rd). 

 

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