Friday, February 28, 2014

New closing high for the S&P 500 and this takes away one bearish element and transfers it to the bullish side. A potential daily TD Sell Countdown runaway bull complicates being neutral but it is still not enough to consider taking the long side until the short term SPX charts finish their counts up to 13 and their subsequent price behavior. Today ends trading for the both the weekly and monthly timeframes and updates will be provided next Monday. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 1847.61

ImageImageWith a new closing high on the daily charts, it is likelier for the 2 hour and the 4 hour SPX charts to complete their 13’s. The 2 hour SPX has an active TD Combo Sell currently on bar 10 and the 4 hour SPX has both TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell active on bar 10. If they finish, the SPX should mark a higher high. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish with a close below SPX 1847.61.

ImageImageImageImageSince Tom DeMark targeted SPX 1885, a new TD Trend Factor is drawn out which is located at SPX 1882.86. Not sure of the viability of a standalone target but If other confluent markers are identified, they will included in time. Nasdaq and the RUT are on fire. Note the competing TD Combo Sells on the RUT; the first completed a 13 yesterday. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX weekly closes below 1797.02 (updated February 24th). 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX (monthly) closes below 1756.54 (updated February 3rd).

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EQUITY SETUP UPDATE: APPLE (AAPL)

Switch to bullish if Apple closes above 522.70 today.

ImageImageA followup on Apple through an analogy: When a skier of average skill traverses down a hill and sees a black diamond sign and the associated drop, chances are the skier will pause and make an assessment whether to take another path or continue down the black diamond run. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is that black diamond sign. Sellers would stop at the 61.8% level because they know the easy path has been made and it will get a little treacherous if they stayed on for the ride. 

What was notable is Apple’s reversal was good enough to erase the daily TD Buy Setup. If Apple holds 522.70 today, the monthly TD Sell Setup stays on course for 600. The ability for Apple to break the TDST Resistance at 561.28 is key. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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