Tuesday, February 25, 2014

The S&P 500 cleared the widely watched 1850 mark, and closed right below it, but not deep enough to substantiate a true end to the short term rally. This type of backing and filling without a deeper retracement continues to carve out a more complex pattern. For simplicity sake, it’s preferred the SPX does not see 1850 again.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish if SPX closes below 1836.46 end-of-day. (a more conservative option is a close below 1828.75, daily chart price flip.)

ImageThe previous unfinished TD Combo Sell for the 4 hour SPX recorded bar 10 yesterday along with a 13 from the existing Combo. The subsequent response was a close below SPX 1850 level but it also closed above the previous high of 1847.50. While this plays more in the bears favor, there is room to finish the current TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell as long as SPX 1836.46 officially holds today. If 1836.46 does not hold today but the SPX closes between the 1836.46 and 1842.85 range, this will provide a edge for the bears tomorrow.  

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish with a close below SPX 1828.75 (updated February 24th).

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX weekly closes below 1797.02 (updated February 24th). 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX (monthly) closes below 1756.54 (updated February 3rd).

 

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