Tuesday, February 18, 2014

George Soros’s Quantum Endowment fund regained status as the top hedge fund in the world, although his hedge fund is technically a “family” office, thanks to Dodd-Frank. Soon after it was reported Quantum made $5.5 billion in 2013, a 13F filing shows the Soros Fund has a $1.3 billion short on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at the end of the 2013. While Soros could be holding the short for various reasons, or the position may even have been liquidated, the S&P short reflects the various TD Sell Countdown thirteens that are beginning to sprout up on the daily charts. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1824.34 mid-day or under 1829.61 end-of-day. 

ImageImageThe 2 hour SPX charts looks the most compelling for a potential reversal. With the SPX nearing highs again, the 2 hour timeframe recorded a TD Sell Countdown @13 last Friday, and it’s currently finalizing a TD Sell Setup @9. Since the 4 hour SPX is the primary timeframe for the short term, the outlook is still bullish until there is a bearish price flip – a close below 1824.34 mid-day or 1829.61 end-of-day. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish with a close below 1819.75.

ImageIt is the last train for the daily SPX. TD Sell Countdown recorded a 13 right above the 1834.55 TD Trend Factor. If this should matter, the SPX should quit testing the upper highs around 1850 and TD Sell Setup should record a reverse setup. For the remaining major indices, they also follow similar patterns and it makes it difficult to become overtly bullish at this price point. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if SPX weekly cannot record a close below 1790.29. 

ImageImageImageImageIf the SPX should record a high close above 1842.37, both TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell will be on a parallel course to record simultaneous 13’s in the weeks ahead. It is this reason the outlook will not switch to bullish since this timeframe is for investors who generally do not rebalance their portfolios more than once a month. Note both the weekly Nasdaq (COMPQ) and Russell 2000 (RUT) are sporting similar counts. For the Nasdaq, although it has recorded a bullish price flip with TD Sell Setup @1, TD Combo Sell recorded a 13 count. To stay aligned with the remaining indices, COMPQ would likely see TD Sell Countdown as the primary count.

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX (monthly) closes below 1756.54 (updated February 3rd.)

 

 

 

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