Friday, January 17, 2014

It is triple witch options expiration Friday, which may just be a non-event as the exchanges have a  scheduled holiday next Monday. GE earnings and December Industrial Production numbers also gave no surprises. SPX 1850 is still now the bull/bear level for the short term. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX cannot close above SPX 1848.31ImageImage

Although the 2 hour chart of the SPX has slightly pulled away from the potential double top level, the 4 hour SPX chart is still in a TD Sell Setup and closing under SPX 1848.31 will at least take the 4 hour TD Sell Setup risk off from a bearish perspective. With the 2 hour chart recording TD Sell Countdown @13, the bears will want to see a chain reaction that resonates through the larger duration timeframes. SPX landing under 1830 will certainly strengthen the bearish cause. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1838.88Image

Not much to say as the SPX has seen limited action this month. SPX 1838.88 is the bearish flip for next Tuesday’s trading day. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if the following indices price flip on their respective weekly charts: SPX closes below 1818.32, Russell 2000 (RUT), 1146.47, Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), 4104.74, and the Dow (DJI), 16221.14. Reinstate bullish outlook if SPX closes above 1850. (updated January 13th)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral with a January close below SPX 1681.55. After January, stop levels will be raised in accordance to price flip levels. (updated January 2nd)

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EQUITY SETUP UPDATE: FACEBOOK (FB)

Facebook coming into price exhaustion territory. Beware of a false upside breakout. ImageImage

 

Facebook’s lofty ambitions – like a Facebook phone that you can probably pick up now for free with a phone contract – are failing. More woes as iStrategy Labs just published a report on the demographic shift on the overall Facebook user. The results show teens have been “Unfriending” Facebook in consecutive years. Even the POTUS has declared Facebook as “not cool”. From a technical picture, FB is currently consolidating around the 53-59 area. A breakout would probably draw in more buyers but it’s likely to fail as the daily TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell are very close to recording 13’s, similar to the last correction back in October of 2013. Providing confluence to the daily charts is the weekly TD Sell Countdown, which is wrapping up a 13 this week. Therefore, probability is high FB will fail now or fail to hold an upside breakout. Earnings are out January 29th. 

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3 Responses to Friday, January 17, 2014

  1. DanishDime says:

    Hi, Shanghai Composite is flirting with the 2000 support level. Can you share the DeMark counts on it? Thanks in advance

  2. Gary says:

    Yes, I would like to know the count on the Shanghai Comp as well. Interesting that we finished (but just barely) below the 1838.88 level Friday. Tuesday may be a telling day for bulls and bears…

  3. Art says:

    The daily Shanghai is consolidating around the 2016.47 TD Trend Factor and it looking like it setting up for some kind of bounce soon – TD Buy Countdown @11 and TD Combo Buy @12. I’ll put some charts up soon.

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