Monday, December 30, 2013

More things to ponder. For quantologists, 2014 looks to be another positive year. Break down the Thanksgiving trade, the Santa Claus trade, last week of the year trade, they all have been positive for the bulls. If January moderately cooperates, the bullish year-end track record for a positive 2014 is nearly perfect for over 50 years.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral with a midday close below SPX 1840.24 or end of the day close below 1841.87. ImageImage

Time to put in tighter constraints as markets are beginning to show signs of strains of going up nearly everyday. The 2 hour SPX chart is in TD Countdown mode along with TD Combo Sell @11 and the 4 hour SPX chart has recorded a full TD Sell Setup @9. Risk management is key now.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral with close below SPX 1827.99ImageImage

Bullish complacency is at highs just as many daily charts are nearing TD Sell Setup completion. The S&P daily chart will be ‘perfected’ by matching the high at 1844.89. For the QQQ, TD Sell Setup ‘perfection’ level is at 87.90. Dow has achieved a TD Sell Countdown @13, albeit about 100 points above the TD Tend Factor. The RUT has completed a TD Sell Setup @9. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish with weekly SPX close below 1805.09. ImageImageImageImage

The area surrounding SPX 1800 continues to be the barrier for support. Even if support is broken, TD Sell Countdown for the SPX is well active which suggests any selloff will likely be of the small to moderate degree variety. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under the January price flip level of SPX 1681.55. (updated December 1st)

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One Response to Monday, December 30, 2013

  1. hatman says:

    SPX has spent time above my target area of 1819/38. There is a good argument why 1845/6 might be important, but I also see a risk that the market will unexpectedly head north to 1873 and then 1910. A break upwards above 1845/6 will confirm.

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