Friday, December 27, 2013

Quick update before the weekend. Another day, another record high. The risks are growing for equities but there are no sell signals as all TD Sell Setups are still active on all daily index charts. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral with a midday close below SPX 1828.15 or end of the day close below 1833.27. ImageImage

The SPX 2 hour chart is still in a TD Sell Setup with 14 consecutive closes above the close 4 bars earlier. This is a useful guide to allow traders to stay long despite the growing risks. The SPX 4 hour chart recorded a TD Sell Setup @9 yesterday and all is left is to see if it wants to go into TD Sell Countdown. The combination of short duration support confluence is bumped higher from yesterday – now between SPX 1826.82 to 1833.27. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral with close below SPX 1818.32.ImageImageImageImage

The Dow’s TD Sell Countdown finalized yesterday with a 13 count and the Russell 2000 (RUT) will probably add to the daily confluence today with a TD Sell Setup @9. Both the SPX and the QQQ will record a 9 count TD Sell Setup on December 31st. Further gains beyond that day without a price flip will increase the prospect of TD Sell Countdown coming into the picture. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish with weekly SPX close below 1805.81 (updated December 23rd)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under the January price flip level of SPX 1681.55. (updated December 1st)

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6 Responses to Friday, December 27, 2013

  1. Randy says:

    Thanks for your blog. I am trying to recreate your chart in TOS, but it looks different. Did you modify the code? Thanks.

    • Art says:

      Which chart? Holiday short sessions often add an extra bar on the intraday charts that don’t belong there. Also, in an effort to make the charts look less cluttered, the TD charts you see on the blog are updated manually.

      • Randy says:

        Hi Art.

        I am looking at the SPX daily chart. I see the 9 and 13s coming up. Somehow the mid November activity never produced and numbers. Your chart had numbers to 13.

      • Art says:

        Ah Ok. I’m assuming you are using TOS’s Sequence Counter. That study is imperfect. It does a decent job of tracking straightforward TD Setups and Countdowns, but it does miss from time to time.

      • Randy says:

        Thanks. I am using sequence counter. Although it has flaws, it is still better than doing it by hand with a spreadsheet!

        I presume I have to modify the formulas to get something like what you did. I do have all of the DeMark books and the Perl book. I should use the formulas and modify the code, right?

      • Art says:

        The working code for the Sequence Counter is not shown so you will have to create your own study from scratch with the Think Script editor. I don’t know the extent of your coding skills but the Learning Center in TOS provides some of the Sequence Counter logic to help with what you already know from the books.

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