It’s a short week for the markets. The Christmas rally is still intact and there are still no upside price targets but there is the SPX 1807 cluster area which serves as support. Bulls need to hold this area through the end of the week and if they are successful, then the next bull test is how it responds to a possible confluence of recorded TD Sell Setups converging around the end of the week. More details in the written SPX technical outlooks.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
If the TD Sell Setup stays intact, the 4 hour SPX chart will point to this Thursday or Friday as a possible exhaustion point. As time approaches, the shorter duration timeframes could lend support to the end of the week target. In the event there is a premature failure to hold the rally, the demarcation level is noted at the SPX 1807 area. The 15/30/60 minute timeframes all have TDST support in the 1807 area and a selloff below 1807 will be taken as a bearish trigger.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
The SPX 1820.59 TD Trend Factor is not the ideal reversal level when considering the SPX has already been consolidating for about a month under SPX 1820. At best, it could have an imperfect impact if the SPX consistently closes in or around the level. The probable scenario is staying with the Christmas rally theme. The current TD Sell Setup is on target to reach a 8 or 9 count on December 30th and 31st, respectively, which is fairly close to the 4 hour exhaustion period on the SPX.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Just as the weekly charts were setting up bearish, an upside reversal came through but to initiate new long positions needs more assessment. However, if the market decides to reassert their bearish tendencies, then a weekly close below SPX 1805.81 should be sufficient price wise. For the remaining indices, bearish price flips will occur with a weekly close on the RUT below 1142.89, DOW below 16,086.41, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) below 4059.89.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under the January price flip level of SPX 1681.55. (updated December 1st)