Thursday, December 5, 2013

The quality of the current selloff has been rather weak so any trend that may emerge will have to wait. The advantage is on the bear’s side as the potential for a downside trend is still higher than the upside. Tomorrow will bring the US non-farm payroll numbers and whether or not you believe the data is fixed, the number still has an impact on markets and if the number gets upward of 200k, another spike in rates could  take hold as market participants start to discount tapering. That could provide an aggressive downside catalyst.  

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Lowering the threshold. Flip to neutral with a close above SPX 1793.59 mid-day or SPX 1795.16 end-of-day. If SPX 1793.59 is triggered mid-day, then flip back to bearish if SPX closes below 1795.16. Image

A series of long legged doji candles opens the possibility that the 4 hour SPX chart will not finish the active TD Buy Setup. If TD Buy Setup stays active, Friday will produce counts 8 and 9 and become an important marker of what happens longer term. Be aware Friday’s trading can be volatile with the US non-farm payroll release. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Everything remains on hold until the market shows additional bearish (or even bullish) patterns. ImageImage

Despite all the indices are on TD Buy Setups, the QQQ is still has an active ‘unperfected’ TD Sell Setup and an unrecorded TD Sell Countdown @13. A new high in the QQQ followed by a failure to hold will give the clearest indication the markets will begin to move lower in tandem. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Revert to neutral with a weekly close under SPX 1770.61. (updated December 1st)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under the January price flip level of SPX 1681.55. (updated December 1st)

 

 

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2 Responses to Thursday, December 5, 2013

  1. waddaguess says:

    13 today for NAS?

    • Art says:

      I didn’t have time for an update today. But yes, 13 on Naz, QQQ, SPY, SPX. My take is despite a great headline payroll number, the market is holding reasonably well So if the market is ready for a selloff, significant or otherwise, it looks more like a process. We’ll see how the market responds to the 13’s next Monday.

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