Tuesday, December 3, 2013

The first signs of a confirmed reversal are here. Both the SPX and the Dow registered the first bearish price flips yesterday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) needs to mount a serious comeback starting today if it is going to keep its TD Sell Setup alive. As such, bull/bear probability has shifted in favor of the bears. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral with an end-the-day close above SPX 1806.89 or a mid-day close above 1807.04, whichever occurs first. If there is a mid-day close above SPX 1807.04, then flip back to bearish with a close below 1806.89. Image

The SPX held the TDST Support at 1800 which is somewhat bullish but since that TDST Support is built from short duration timeframes and the daily counts have flipped bearish, 1800 is looking fragile.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Upside looks limited and more downside looks probable.ImageImageImageImage

There is still a 13 that has not been accounted for the SPX and the QQQ so a single day upside burst is still in the cards. If so, it will likely become a selling opportunity. Also, the QQQ is probably in the best position to record a TD Sell Setup. The action in the RUT is the most promising for the overall bearish picture and today could be the day where it loses its active TD Sell Setup. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Revert to neutral with a weekly close under SPX 1770.61. (updated December 1st)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under the January price flip level of SPX 1681.55. (updated December 1st)

 

 

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