Tuesday, November 26, 2013

The S&P 500 (SPX) levitation rate is slowing as the 4 hour SPX chart barely has an active TD Sell Setup. Unless there is a some sort of a late day reversal or a unnecessary strong finish today, outlooks will remain bullish. The implications are drawn out below. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral with a mid-day close below SPX 1801.58 or a end of the close below 1804.84. If the 4 hour chart completes a ‘perfected’ TD Sell Setup @9 tomorrow, there will be a consideration to go neutral as well. Image

Prognostication will be easier if the 4 hour chart records a ‘perfected’ 8 or 9 count. Couple that with a blowoff top, that would be the clearest signal a potential top is at hand. If the 4 hour SPX chart should fail to record a TD Sell Setup and holds 1800, a run to fulfill the daily TD Sell Setups on the various indices cannot be discounted. More on that in the short/intermediate outlook.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral with a close below SPX 1795.85 (daily bearish price flip for Wednesday)ImageImageImageImage

The SPX daily chart needs to match or exceed 1804.84 today to finish off the TD Sell Countdown @13. Since the SPX is about 15 points away from the TD Trend Factor at 1820, the possibility for the TD Sell Setup to finish a 9 exists. Looking at the related indices, the daily Dow has fulfilled all counts but trading higher than the TD Trend Factor. QQQ is trading against its TD Trend Factor at 84.52 but the TD counts are still active. The RUT has the clearest bullish potential as it has room to run higher with TD Trend Factor at 1152.47 and TD Sell Setup @4. The markets are in reversal territory but all in all, a conservative approach will be taken until there are clearer bearish signals. At this point, it is much easier to take all what the bulls are willing to give.

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

All major indices have unbroken TD Sell Setups (updated November 22nd)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

SPX has decisively closed above the May highs and current TD Sell Setup @9 + 7 remains unbroken. Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under 1685.73. (updated November 4th)

 

 

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