Wednesday, November 20, 2013

The loss for the SPX is about 1% from the 1802.33 high so far. A further selloff to around the SPX 1760 level would be acceptable to keep the bullish trend intact. A close above SPX 1790.62 today will give some support that another high is lurking ahead but the higher probability is for the SPX to continue to work off the excessive bullish sentiment. The primary DeMark focus is managing the SPX 4 hour and daily timeframes and keeping an eye on the Dow. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Staying cautious but a close above SPX 1790.62 (active daily TD Sell Setup) will provide a slight bullish bias.Image

In an effort to manage timeframes, there is TDST Support from the 60 and 120 minute timeframes between SPX 1760.64 and 1763.93. The proposal there is if the 4 hour SPX can record a TD Buy Setup @9 above 1760, that will be considered bullish. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

A close above SPX 1790.62 keeps the TD Sell Setup @6 active which opens the possibility of another marginal high. ImageImage

The current internal debate is whether the SPX 1802 is the high before seeing a modest selloff or is there another high lurking before the bulls relent. If the SPX can clear 1790.62 today, then it would need to show strength on Thursday with a close above 1798.18. The Dow’s message is the markets are tired by way of the 9’s and 13’s and if there is another high, it will not last.

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

SPX, Nasdaq (COMPQ), and the Russell 2000 (RUT) are all at ground zero of TD Sell Setup @9. Current expectations is the same as last week. The 9’s do not have to matter immediately since the daily counts may have found renewed strength. (updated November 11th) 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

SPX has decisively closed above the May highs and current TD Sell Setup @9 + 7 remains unbroken. Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under 1685.73. (updated November 4th)

 

 

 

 

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