Friday, November 15, 2013

Unlike YouTube which said yes to a 1.5 billion sale to Google, Snapchat said no to 3 billion to Facebook. This all came because Facebook tried to replicate Snapchat’s model with Poke and failed. Even Microsoft had success copying everyone else’s technology which makes Facebook a desperate company that needs to branch out or join MySpace in the social app graveyard. 

Tom Lee, JP Morgan’s equity strategist, has targeted SPX 1825 for the year-end citing improving economic momentum, and attractive relative value. Not sure how that adds up to 1825 but that target aligns with the TD Trend Factor at 1820 and another poster on this board that has SPX 1828. There are some near term headwinds though…

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral with a close below SPX 1781.87Image

Absent of a bearish price flip, next Tuesday is the primary stopping point for a bull/bear evaluation. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

A couple more Fibonacci levels have been added to the SPX 1820.59 TD Trend Factor but there a few obstacles in the coming days that need to be addressed. 

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If the SPX gets to 1820 – 1830 area, it may not be smooth as the Dow is about to record a TD Sell Countdown and a TD Combo Sell that is near the 15,991.13 half TD Trend Factor level. Also the RUT is nearing a 13 count TD Sell Combo and the QQQ is about to close in on the 84.52 TD Trend Factor. The result of all this could be for the indices will just deliver a selloff of 1-2% just to wear off the bullish sentiment but I am open to deeper losses depending on the catalyst. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

SPX, Nasdaq (COMPQ), and the Russell 2000 (RUT) are all at ground zero of TD Sell Setup @9. Current expectations is the same as last week. The 9’s do not have to matter immediately since the daily counts may have found renewed strength. (updated November 11th) 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

SPX has decisively closed above the May highs and current TD Sell Setup @9 + 7 remains unbroken. Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under 1685.73. (updated November 4th)

 

 

 

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One Response to Friday, November 15, 2013

  1. hatman says:

    Possibility of a temporary top here, but the 1805/8 area looks more compelling and the market might/should try for that area. If so, a drop to 1760 or so looks on the cards, either now or preferably after 1805/8. The real top won’t come until 1828 (say 1820/30 area) after which a sharp correction to 1640 looks likely, with a possible overshoot to the 1560 area. I’ll guess we’ll see 1820/30 in the run up to Dec 15th and much lower levels by the end of the year. Sentiment is very high so the overshoot to 1560 or so is a real possibility.

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