China’s Third Plenum, which is the State of the Union address times ten, did not provide any support for emerging markets overnight. The leaders identified social, political, and economic ills but without any concrete methods to tackle those ills. Rightly so. How do you grow an economy without the pollution after effects? How do you shift an economy from foreign consumption to domestic consumption in an aging population? Equity markets continue to range trade and if Janet Yellen’s Senate hearing goes smoothly, then there could finally be an upside catalyst.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
The consensus support and resistance levels are likely to hold true with anything above SPX 1770 is bullish and below 1745 is bearish. Anything in between is noise. Watch for a potential catalyst during the Janet Yellen confirmation hearings. The idea is to catch a rally that is sustainable by recording a full TD Buy/Sell Setup on the 4 hour chart and the Keltner/Bollinger TTM_Squeeze is signaling it is coming soon. There is a slight bullish bias with the momentum component pointing upwards on the squeeze indicator.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
SPX, Nasdaq (COMPQ), and the Russell 2000 (RUT) are all at ground zero of TD Sell Setup @9. Current expectations is the same as last week. The 9’s do not have to matter immediately since the daily counts may have found renewed strength. (updated November 11th)
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
SPX has decisively closed above the May highs and current TD Sell Setup @9 + 7 remains unbroken. Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under 1685.73. (updated November 4th)