Wednesday, October 30, 2013

The Fed announcement is a couple hours away and the consensus is no change in the QE program. That should hold true and the assessment of the economy could be slightly downgraded due to the uncertainty of the government shutdown. As for the equity markets, there is likely a bout of initial volatility but as the market is laboring higher, this will be the best time for some initial profit taking.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

SPX came within’ two points of the 1777 target and the bulls look too challenged. Image

TD Combo Sell has recorded a 13 at the close yesterday. The remaining pieces are TD Sell Countdown @10 and TD Sell Setup @7. A close today under SPX 1762.20 will rule out the TD Sell Setup and that should be the first step in determining that a pullback is in the works. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Current prognostication is for a pullback and the overall trend will stay higher. However, will switch to neutral with a close under SPX 1752.16 today. 

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The Russell 2000 (RUT) is leading the path lower and that should signal the other indices to follow. The Dow is at resistance and although the QQQ’s pushed higher than the ideal reversal level, it is still inside the risk level. Finally the SPX has fulfilled all the necessary pieces for at least a pullback. A close today under 1752.16 will warrant more caution. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Most major indices will begin the week on TD Sell Setup @8 which is the beginning of the price exhaustion window. (last updated October 28th)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Market is extended and within’ the risk level parameters of the 9 and 13 TD Sequential clusters in April and May. (last updated September 30th)

 

 

 

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