Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Tomorrow, the FOMC meets again and it should be an easy decision to say the Fed will not make any adjustments to monetary policy. However, that consensus should already be discounted and instead it would be more important not to get caught up into the lull of complacency as tomorrow will likely provide the first technical test since the government shutdown. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1759.57 today. Image

If the SPX closes on the high of the day, the 4 hour chart will likely record a TD Combo Sell @13. In addition, if there is another push higher tomorrow, both the active TD Sell Setup and TD Sell Countdown will get awfully close in recording a full set of 9’s and 13’s. In light of this, stops are getting tighter as the market appears to be getting too vertical. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

SPX is within’ 10 points of the confluent targets at 1777. Tomorrow will be key as to how much fuel is left in this current bull leg. 

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With all or almost all daily charts sporting 9’s and 13’s, and with the SPX and the Dow getting close to or at resistance, it would be natural to think tomorrow’s Fed day would be a good catalyst for the market to suffer some sort of setback. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Most major indices will begin the week on TD Sell Setup @8 which is the beginning of the price exhaustion window. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Market is extended and within’ the risk level parameters of the 9 and 13 TD Sequential clusters in April and May. (last updated September 30th)

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STOCK SETUP UPDATE: APPLE (AAPL)

Apple is finally showing signs of pulling in by possibly registering a bearish engulfing pattern along with a bearish price flip. ImageImage

The 600 target still looks reasonable as the weekly and monthly charts are still constructive but Apple merits watching in the days ahead before pinpointing another long entry point. 

 

 

 

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2 Responses to Tuesday, October 29, 2013

  1. hatman says:

    SPX has a possible target in the 1778/81 area where wave 5 will be 0.618 and waves 1 and 3 will be equal. That’s certainly possible. The alternative scenario, given that it’s possible to see the first two waves as equal, is that wave 5 extends to 1.618, giving a target of 1830/40. The Fib 1.618 target for 3=1.618 in the larger picture is 1828, so a jump to 1828/40 might be achieved through a blow off top in the short term.

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