Thursday, October 24, 2013

The market is still in phase of the bullish construct. Yesterday, there was a link to Wayne Whaley’s breadth studies. Here is a more timely quant study by him which is tied to the remainder of the year based on a positive September. In a word – bullish. Whaley > Whaley fourth quarter update.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1744.50 today.Image

 

TD Sell Setup is technically still active and will remain active if the 4 hour timeframe closes above SPX 1754.57 today. Failure to to reach 1754.57 is not an end all for the short term. Since there is a solid floor at the SPX 1745 level and the daily price flip is at 1744.50, the bullish outlook remains as long as this area holds on the close.  

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Markets are still trading constructively bullish but staying vigilant.Image

The SPX is currently trading inside yesterday’s high-low range. This gives further indication of a consolidation. Should the SPX close below 1744.50 and trips the bearish price flip wire, this opens the door for further short term losses.

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

SPX has cleared the 1711.44 closing marker for a continuation of more gains. There will be further confirmation if the SPX closes above the 1737.48 risk level established by the August 5th weekly close (last updated October 18th)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Market is extended and within’ the risk level parameters of the 9 and 13 TD Sequential clusters in April and May. (last updated September 30th)

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STOCK SETUP UPDATE: BENEFIT FOCUS (BNFT)

BNFT is at an inflection point with TD Sell Setup @ ‘unperfected’ 9 and trading under IPO closing high. Image

A follow-up on BNFT, the cloud based employee benefits IPO. Currently it is at inflection point as it is not unusual to see prices halt right before an important marker like the first day IPO closing high. Here are some bull/bear outcomes. TD Sell Setup is not ‘perfected’ and to record a ‘perfected’ TD Sell Setup, a daily high needs to meet or exceed 53.79. If it does ‘perfect’ and maintains a close above 53.55, it is highly probable BNFT will go into TD Sell Countdown and see higher prices. If TD Sell Setup does ‘perfect’ and closes below 53.55, BNFT becomes more tenuous. In any outcome, if BNFT should close below the 8 day exponential moving average, currently at 49.59, the safe play will be neutral and wait for another future set-up. 

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