Thursday, October 17, 2013

Markets are in complete beast mode. The opportunity for a sustainable sell off was reversed early putting the sell-the-news selloff officially off the table. The daily SPX TD Sell Setup is active and the focus is on the completion next week along with the related indices. If this is a blowoff rally, they can be real scorchers as sharp selloffs are quickly bought. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flipping back to bullish again. The bull/bear marker at SPX 1710 was barely challenged today and now trading well above 1720. Image

As soon as new all time highs are cleared, a formidable target is a pair of Fibonacci clusters at SPX 1750. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

With the VIX well below 15 and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 acting bullish, it is best to follow the price action. ImageImage

The Fibonacci targets drawn at SPX 1750 is a good target to follow and we’ll see how it fits along with the active TD Sequential indicators if/when it gets there. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has been showing strength and will observe any respect to its 80.68 TD Trend Factor as the Q’s are currently pressed against it. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Same as last week. Switch to bearish if SPX closes below 1687. Also will have to come to terms of another bullish initiation if the weekly SPX closes above 1711. (updated on October 11th)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Market is extended and within’ the risk level parameters of the 9 and 13 TD Sequential clusters in April and May. (last updated September 30th)

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STOCK SETUP: IBM 

A followup of IBM after earnings. IBM’s underwhelming earnings report shows it has took the next step in becoming the next Microsoft or Hewlett-Packard. Citing the Credit Suisse analyst report about the declining metrics, “This suggests the issues facing the company could be more than temporary”. ImageImage

The bearish potential of IBM is coming to fruition. The TDST Support on the weekly chart has been broken at 179.32. That has been an important support marker for almost two years. What will really set the IBM bear in motion is the continuing monthly volatility squeeze. It’s worth repeating that when the Bollinger band exits out of the Keltner band, a long term trend becomes established and with momentum pointing lower, that trend will be bearish. IBM will have try extra hard to reverse the momentum against deteriorating fundamental and technical picture. Overall, IBM is in danger in becoming a secular sell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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