Tuesday, October 1, 2013

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL INTRADAY

A bullish price flip has occurred on the 4 hour chart and will switch the outlook to bullish if the market closes above SPX 1692.77. To stay aligned with the daily chart, a close below 1692.77 will change the outlook back to bearish. Image

It was well telegraphed that a buying opportunity was in the works but to buy the market ahead of a potential government shutdown and then to buy more when the government actually shuts down is befuddling. The price flip is a nice quality candle so a rally of some sort is probable if the SPX stays above 1692.77 and closes there.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Will switch to neutral if the SPX closes above 1692.77 today. The extreme high reading from the McClellan Oscillator in conjunction with the SPX reaching the TD Trend Factor at 1733.84 after the Fed announcement on September 18th still matters. 

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If the daily SPX does price flip higher by closing above 1692.77, then the next contention is the 1699.15 TD Propulsion threshold level.  A break above there, then the market has to deal with 1710 which is the standard 61.8% retracement level and where the previous failed breakout occurred back in September 18th. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Officially neutral but the SPX closed on a bearish engulfing pattern last week which gives it a bearish bias. Also, the risk level at 1737.48 officially has not been breached when the 13 count TD Sell Countdown was recorded back in the last week of July. (last updated September 30th)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Market is extended and within’ the risk level parameters of the 9 and 13 TD Sequential clusters in April and May. (last updated September 30th)

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So the markets gives Congress a vote of confidence. If that is not complacency, I do not what is. 

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