Monday, September 9, 2013

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The S&P 500 (SPX) is at an inflection point. On the 4 hour chart, bar 8 of TD Sell Setup has ‘perfected ‘ the count today with a high that was higher than bar 6 and 7. If the bearish hypothesis is correct, at the very least, SPX must close below the 50 day moving average which lies around 1666. A SPX close under the TD Propulsion level at 1662.71 would help strengthen the bear cause. A close above SPX 1654.97 would officially complete the 9 count TD Sell Setup but a close below would serve as a bearish confirmation that the market is setup to reverse.

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An update on Facebook (FB). The daily chart on Facebook is about to match the all time high at 45 which should serve as natural resistance. It also should be pointed out that an additional test is coming in the form of a 13 on the TD Sell Countdown today. Similar to the 9 count TD Sell Setup that was recorded back on August 5th, at least some giveback would be expected. Overall, it is not a terribly bearish picture since the weekly charts are in TD Sell Countdown but the probability of a breakout above 45 will not be initially sustainable. 

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Positioned short but at risk of pulling out since SPX currently is trading above 1666. If SPX closes above the 50 DMA, I will certainly revert back to neutral and hold out until tomorrow. (updated intraday)

 

                                                                                                                 

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