Thursday, August 8, 2013

ImageIt is becoming more evident that S&P 500 (SPX) 1700 level is the bull/bear line. More specifically SPX 1697.32. That level defines whether the 9 count TD Buy Setup can stay active or not. If it does break to the upside, it will not necessarily be the end all for the bearish side unless market breadth begins a startling initiation to the upside. If SPX breaks under the 1683-84 range, then another confirmation piece will be added to the bear picture. If the SPX does break the downside, then a TD Buy Setup will likely record bar 8/bar 9 late Friday/early Monday. Continued sideways price action will also revert the TD Buy Setup back to neutral. ImageImageImageImageHere are the daily counts for the various indices. Note that I have replaced the Nasdaq with the PowerShares (QQQ). The predictive power is more accurate on QQQ than the Nasdaq as the DeMark counts are better aligned with the Q’s.  

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There are no ‘blurred lines’. If SPX closes above 1697.32 today, I will flip back neutral.  (updated intraday)

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4 Responses to Thursday, August 8, 2013

  1. Topher says:

    Hi Art,

    Could you explain the 12 countdown on the SPX daily to me? I have the close 8/5 at 1707.14 and the high two bars back on 8/1 at 1707.85. Therefore, I still have SPX Countdown on 11, is there a rule that I am missing?

    Thanks.
    Topher

    • Art says:

      No, you’re right. It’s an 11. I originally penciled a 12 intraday and I forgot to erase it when the close invalidated it. Thanks for the double-check.

  2. gary says:

    I know you like to stick to just the technicles of the market but I’m going to throw this at you. In December 2012 Shinzō Abe was elected the Prime Minister of Japan. Until December 2012 the the Yen-Dollar had been tracking the SPX.. In December they diverged.Now both markets appear to be turning. Coincidence or is the Yen carry trade leading the SPX or vice versa? Or is all this just my imagination?
    $XJY
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
    Gary

    • Art says:

      I was actually looking at the Yen/SPX correlation on the short term charts to see what leads what. European bourses are also diverging in price. i.e. Portugal could be up 1% and the DAX would be lower. Also, why isn’t the Asian markets responding to the “good” data from China. Everything is a bit disarrayed.

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