Tuesday, July 23, 2013

ImageThe DeMark confluence is not quite there yet on the S&P 500 (SPX) and SPX 1711 has not been challenged yet. So even if the SPX should reverse the TD Sell Setup on the 4-hour chart by closing below 1691.85, I would be leery that that is all the SPX can muster up. The ideal setup would be to see the 4-hour ‘perfect’ the 9 count TD Sell Setup tomorrow. This should also bring a 13 on the TD Sell Countdown as well. ImageThe SPX daily chart is close to recording a TD Sell Countdown and a TD Combo Sell indicating the maximum exhaustion point is not quite there yet. Observing the 8 day exponential moving average, it is beginning to overlap the trendline. It does not signal the end of the upside but it does provide an early warning sign that the upside is almost done. ImageImageAn update on Apple (AAPL) from June 28th. Now that earnings are due, here are scenarios utilizing some DeMark methods. If Apple can clear the upside past the daily TDST 450.72 level, prior to recording a TD Sell Setup, then a sustainable rally is probable. If AAPL should see another lower low, this will finally complete the perfected 9 count on the monthly chart and a buying opportunity still exists provided AAPL does not close the month below the monthly TDST level at 377.68. 

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At this point, I will follow the 4 hour chart’s lead and hope the respective TD Sell Setup carries over through tomorrow. By then, I will look for short entries especially if 1700 can be breached to the upside. If the SPX appears to close below 1691.85 today, I will consider positioning short. (updated intraday) 

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