There is a lot of indecision in the markets and they are reflective by the non-cooperative movement nature of it. Here are the near term bull and bear potential outcomes. For the chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), the ‘perfected’ 9 count TD Sell Setup finally did occur. The signal there is prices shall reverse or at least stall. If the SPX can close below the 50 day moving average and record a bearish price flip on the daily chart, that will help confirm the bear view. The bull outcome is the SPX does close above the 50 DMA and the daily count will go on to at least complete the 9 count TD Sell Setup there. That will make a top either next Monday or Tuesday and from that vantage point, we can judge if the market is ready to reverse.
With the markets open for one day, and closing the next and now a weekend is upon us, it’s making a mess of any directional move. I was fully prepared to go long prior to the jobs release but switched to the short side after watching the S&P futures respond negatively after the jobs release. Thoughts at the time were for the SPX to close negative. But there is enough buying support that it may not happen. I am currently positioning between neutral and short and unless the SPX can close under 1606.28 today, I will be flat into the weekend regardless what happens today. (updated intraday)