Monday, July 1, 2013

ImageImageStill utilizing the four hour S&P 500 (SPX) chart as a precursor of the bigger picture. Despite the initial churn below SPX 1620, the 9 count TD Sell Setup never broke and it is still active. The current count is on bar 7. If bar 8 can meet or exceed the high of bar 7, the market has hit the minimum requirements for price exhaustion. If bar 8 fails, then bar 9, which will commence at the start of Tuesday session, will need to meet or exceed the high of bar 7 today. What I will be observing is how the market behaves bears once the TD Sell Setup is complete. If the bears are ineffective to make a meaningful reversal, then it will be likely the four hour timeframe will enter TD Sell Countdown and the daily timeframe will continue it’s own TD Setup currently on bar 4. ImageImageImageHere are the updated DeMark monthly charts for SPX, Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), and the Russell 2000 (RUT). There are additional price exhaustion points recorded last June. It is these charts that is preventing me to go all-in bullish. 

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This will be a tough week to trade since a US holiday will split the week up into two pieces. While logical thinking would be for the SPX to waver around until the US jobs report this Friday, I will follow the four hour TD Sell Setup and find a nice short placement either later today or early tomorrow and see where it goes. Right now I am keying on the range between the SPX 1629 and 1639. I am using the even shorter time frames on TD Sequential to help hone in on a definitive entry price. (updated intraday)

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