Monday, June 24, 2013

ImageOn the S&P 500 (SPX) four hour chart, we are coming to a point where the market will make an interim bottom as soon as tomorrow. Here’s how I see it:

– Today’s low so far is 1560.33 as indicated by bar 6. 

– If there is a lower low by today’s close, then that low will serve as a guide post for tomorrow. If not, then 1560.33 will be that guide post

-Upon the start of tomorrow’s open, any print under the low print of today begins the process for hunting a buyable low. The shorter duration charts such as the one and two hour charts are in TD Buy Countdown mode so a completion there may mark a low. Also the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at SPX 1540 could serve as a target as well. 

-If the market decides to move higher without completing a 8 or 9 count TD Buy Setup today, that will be confirmed with a 4 hour close above SPX 1588.40. For early tomorrow, that number will be 1591.47. If SPX closes above 1582.77 today, then there is a good possibility the four hour count may be broken.

ImageImageA look at the daily and weekly SPX charts. They are essentially just getting started on the downside. 

ImageImageThe benchmark 10 year US Treasury rates have been stunning. Utilizing the CBOE 10 Year Treasury Yield Index (TNX) as a proxy, the daily and weekly charts are combining together to indicate some stabilization this week. Down the line, I would expect rates to continue to rise as the monthly Keltner/Bollinger bands have just started a volatility squeeze higher. 

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The market is currently at bounce-worthy levels. The McClellan oscillator which has been written in previous posts is at another extreme. Therefore, to continue to play the downside is getting increasingly dangerous. I will allow the four hour TD Buy Setup to play out through tomorrow but will certainly stop myself out with a close above SPX 1582.77 today. (updated intraday) 

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2 Responses to Monday, June 24, 2013

  1. macro says:

    what does tnx monthly demark look like?

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