Thursday, April 11, 2013

ImageKeeping tabs on the S&P 500 (SPX) four hour chart on the pending TD Sell Setup. It is saying tomorrow is the day that will begin to give traders an early look of what is ahead. Tomorrow will provide the 8 count in the morning and the 9 count at the close. Depending on what happens intraday, if a selloff does not begin tomorrow, then next Monday morning should be the time.  A muted response would not be out of the question considering the Bollinger band has officially exited the Keltner channel on the Keltner/Bollinger indicator (K/B) as shown in yesterday’s post. Also as a reminder from yesterday, if the Elliott irregular top is still in play, I project it has until Monday to reverse the market down. 

ImageRevisiting Facebook (FB) again from the April 3rd post. Once again, it is sitting on a 9 count TD Sell Setup. At this point, some consolidation would make sense but there is a higher probability of a continuation move higher a la TD Sell Countdown. Citing the trendline break as one reason. Another is the DeMark TDST resistance line has been breached at 27.65. Consolidations take on many forms but If FB consolidates above 27.65, it would certainly bode well for more upside. Also, it will work well with the Weekly FB DeMark chart which already completed a DeMark sequence. 

ImageAlso revisiting LinkedIn (LNKD) form the February 19th post.  LNKD is in an interesting spot. It has reached an exhaustive 13 count TD Sell Countdown. Given recent history, another consolidation before the next move higher would be an acceptable argument. However, this is one time it can go all wrong. The Keltner/Bollinger bands (K/B) have been coiling for a number of days now setting up a major directional move. If this move is lower, caution would warranted on the quick buy the dip mentality as K/B’s have a tendency to wreak havoc.

 For the overall equity markets, now that the K/B have officially unleashed to the upside, SPX can trade much higher before the elusive correction begins. If the K/B fails, it would be suggested it will coincide with the four hour DeMark TD Setup. Bears can use that to their advantage to short if the bet is the K/B will fail or just play the retracement. I still don’t have any confluent upside targets but personal outlook is this mega melt up has more to go. (updated mid trading day)
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4 Responses to Thursday, April 11, 2013

  1. gary johnson says:

    DeMark says you need either 4 new daily highs or 4 out 5 to make a market top.

  2. gary johnson says:

    DeMark mentions the 4 highs in a Bloomberg video that was made on 01/20/12 but, he kind of muddles it up. There is a video where he is much clearer about this, I haven’t had time to find it yet.
    More important just take a look youself. Here is a list taken from Bespoke of 5% or greater declines.
    02/18/11
    04/29/11
    07/07/11
    08/15/11
    08/31/11
    09/16/11
    10/28/11
    04/02/12 this one has to be fudged a little to 04/28/12
    09/14/12

    • Art says:

      Thanks. Got it. I couldn’t really get a precise top with 4 highs. I can kind of get close if the 4 highs are counted from a fresh high and maybe add a qualifier that there needs to be a minimum move. Then there is better chance of a top. So with that, the SPX made 2 highs so far.

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