Monday, April 1, 2013

ImageHere is one hypothetical. Last Thursday, the designated target of S&P 500 (SPX) between 1565-1568 was taken out to a high of 1570.28 implying the target was overshot by a couple points. If this is true and the high has been made, the four hour chart of TD Sequential will make that claim. Today’s morning session shows a qualified bar 8 with a higher high at SPX 1570.57. It will not matter if there is a bar 9 since the bare minimum of the TD Sell Setup has been met. For the sake of completeness, if today’s close is above SPX 1564.07, then a 9 will be recorded. The effectiveness will still be tracked whether it’s bar 8 or 9. 

ImageReverting back to the micro Elliott counts, if the top has been made, then the first confirmation is a break on the rising trendline. If there is a micro degree Elliott ending diagonal within’ the small degree ending diagonal, then fresh highs should be made…and hopefully, it’s the final run. 

ImageIt’s April and it’s a new month with new DeMark counts. Last March 7th, Tom DeMark has spoken about a cluster of 13’s on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. He didn’t specifically say when but the monthly chart adds to the confluence and suggests it is close. The monthly SPX is in the process of recording a 9 count TD Sell Setup this month with 13’s in the form of TD Countdown and TD Combo following later. DeMark’s main objective was the TD trend factor target at SPX 1567.42 which has been broken. Currently, the SPX is trading underneath this level but if it sees 1567.42 again, then the reliability has been reduced for DeMark’s trend factor. 

Since there wasn’t a solid rejection at the SPX 1565-68 level, the markets has some bullish options. But they should be short-lived as you can feel the vulnerability of the markets. (updated mid trading day)

 

 

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