Wednesday, March 20, 2013

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Sticking with the experiment on the TD Propulsion for the 60 minute chart, the S&P 500 (SPX) never took out the old TD Propulsion 1559.80 threshold level and a lower low was made at 1538.57. It was low enough where we can expand the range as notated in blue on the above chart. This places the new threshold level at 1557.12. These threshold levels can be thought of as resistance levels but drawn quantitatively rather than visually. Therefore treat the threshold level as you would for any moving average or resistance level. Currently, the SPX has pierced above the new 1557.12 level but has not closed above it. That should provide clues that demand is building and shifting the probability to a new high. A close or consecutive closes provides more evidence it is mounting a move to old highs. 

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The drawdown so far is best interpreted as corrective wave with a shot of finishing wave 5 which I’m targeting at SPX 1565-1568. This is looking at the very small picture. The intermediate picture has the SPX in wave 5 with a slew of DeMark 9 and 13 land mine counts so this market is free to move lower. Today is Fed day and if there is support to the upside, my interpretation has the SPX 1565-1568 level as where there is a high probability of failure. Otherwise, it’s best the market fails now. 

On a side note, Tom DeMark made another bullish call on the Shanghai market. His previous call on that market was near perfection. For the US markets, he has officially claimed SPX 1567.40 as his target for a reversal. (updated mid trading day)

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5 Responses to Wednesday, March 20, 2013

  1. Suren says:

    Tom DeMark’s comment of SPX high around 1,492 went south. He had a 22% rally in Apple that also was not correct. Charles Nenner along with Martin Armstrong are forecasting a increase in volatility and a correction till the end of April / 1st week in May. Hence, the correction or a small crash cycle is coming. Question is when?

    • Art says:

      Wasn’t Nenner predicting war? With all the alternative political parties sprouting across the world, there is a feeling of a frog boiling in water.

  2. Suren says:

    Yes, according to him things will start to rumble in 2013, but nithing full scale. Martin Armstrong also says that the war cycles start to turn up this summer. Bleak future ahead.

    Many articles say to watch FedEx to see whether the economy is turning (companies shipping more). FedEx just reported a 30% miss. How is that the stock market keeps going up, especially with 0.1% GDP? ECRI Laxshman Atchuthan says we are already in recession?

  3. Suren says:

    It is not free markets anymore. No economics student can read these charts to predict or forecast actual market behaviour. It is all manipulated. As Kaynes said, with artificial simulation — at the end, everything will crumble.

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