Tuesday, March 5, 2013

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Today will mark a S&P 500 (SPX) TD Sell Countdown completion. It is questionable if this would signal the end of the rally today since it is not supported by the Keltner/Bollinger channel indicator as mentioned in the March 1st post. The Keltner/Bollinger combo has officially started and almost all the time it will draw prices in the direction of the breakout. Also, the TD propulsion level at 1516.36 has kicked off a bull trigger. 

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Top SPX Elliott wave snapshot is down to two patterns. I’m giving equal weight to both patterns above. Considering the short duration, the chart on the left suggests that a high degree wave 3 has not ended and that the recent drawdown was just a small degree wave 4 in the higher degree wave 3. This will imply a longer duration rally as opposed to the other pattern which is an expanded flat or maybe even a running flat. Either flat pattern would suggest a C wave down that will commence shortly. 

I still hold the view that the market will top sometime this year but 2013 will still be an up year. In the meantime, I will seek out potential exhaustion points for the near term and considering the SPX is already at 1542, I suspect it won’t be too far away. (updated mid trading day)

 

 

 

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One Response to Tuesday, March 5, 2013

  1. Thank you for the EW count.

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