Friday, October 12, 2012

All the markets are so fractured and confused. Selective sectors are moving higher and other moving lower. Same for the indexes. Now since we got the break under SPX 1430, I have gone 100% cash going into the weekend. It’s too oversold to short so it’s better to wait until Monday to see how things unfold. Though I distinguished 1430 as a strict bull/bear line, the market range stayed within the confines of a Elliott corrective flat pattern. So with the break under 1430 we had today needs to correct itself starting on Monday and close above it.

A different perspective using the Nasdaq index.  As negative as it looks, if we can get a reversal around the 3020 area, and make it stick, higher highs are there before year end. But if  we get a retracement higher and hit another low, that would be an Elliott five which is bearish.

Keeping an eye Apple still. Possible base is forming as the “really good buy zone” is being respected. Must watch this as this stock is the mothership for all.

It’s too early to declare a a bear move on the same magnitude of 2008 or 2011, but it sure does look like a topping process is in the making. If we did hit the highs, we are only down 3% so 17% or more is waiting. Next week will give us more clues.




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