Today will mark a S&P 500 (SPX) TD Sell Countdown completion. It is questionable if this would signal the end of the rally today since it is not supported by the Keltner/Bollinger channel indicator as mentioned in the March 1st post. The Keltner/Bollinger combo has officially started and almost all the time it will draw prices in the direction of the breakout. Also, the TD propulsion level at 1516.36 has kicked off a bull trigger.
Top SPX Elliott wave snapshot is down to two patterns. I’m giving equal weight to both patterns above. Considering the short duration, the chart on the left suggests that a high degree wave 3 has not ended and that the recent drawdown was just a small degree wave 4 in the higher degree wave 3. This will imply a longer duration rally as opposed to the other pattern which is an expanded flat or maybe even a running flat. Either flat pattern would suggest a C wave down that will commence shortly.
I still hold the view that the market will top sometime this year but 2013 will still be an up year. In the meantime, I will seek out potential exhaustion points for the near term and considering the SPX is already at 1542, I suspect it won’t be too far away. (updated mid trading day)
Thank you for the EW count.