A couple hours after I finished my post yesterday, Bloomberg’s AJ’s Insight and Action segment focused on Tom DeMark’s latest call. The segment centered on which markets were reaching price exhaustion points via the DeMark indicators. DeMark made claim that the French, German, and the UK markets have reached their price exhaustion points and they are sells. For the S&P 500 (SPX), the “sell” date is “very close”. Adam Johnson, who runs the Bloomberg segment, paraphrased DeMark by saying there needs to be a 13 count, and that may come after taking out the old highs of 1474.51, Another factor is a blowoff move to SPX 1492.
To make sense of this, Adam Johnson had his conversation with Tom DeMark yesterday morning. He alluded that yesterday was a 12 count and not a 13 as a conventional TD Sequential would have it. This wouldn’t be the first time my counts would be slightly off so I have to assume he has modification filters on how relaxed or how strict his counts would be. That would not be surprising considering DeMark has a full blown army of indicators.
Going back to the Bloomberg segment, taking out SPX 1474.51 is just a knock on the door at this point. That is one factor and another factor is a blowoff to SPX 1492. That is a bit confusing because you can have a 13 count without the blowout. So is there a 13 count qualifier DeMark is using or is there another competing indicator he is using? Not sure.
Here is the video: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/tom-demark-sell-around-the-world-KdBPeJbXQXqvlShFYHL7Jw.html
What is not on the video but it was on the Bloomberg ticker – ” DeMark sees S&P 500 falling by at least 5.5% after peak near 1500″.
Carried the 37% short position into today’s session and I am looking to add more. Although DeMark’s “official” sell analysis is pretty detailed, markets can recycle into another rally or just sell off now. I’m just taking comfort that my analysis is on the same track as DeMark’s analysis. (Updated before market opening)
demark’s 1492.73 target is derived from his td trendfactor indicator. trendfactor uses multiples of .0556% to forecast a target. in this case, take the Nov 16 low and multiply by 1.1112. as for his current 12 count, i believe it is based on his sequential count prior to yestderday’s trade, so in theory, he would have picked up the 13 sequential count at yesterday’s close. as to why he needs his 13 to be higher than the sept 14 high, i don’t know.
Aw yeah…Thanks and thanks for the calculations too! I think DeMark gives a lot of weight that his trendfactor targets are tagged along with a 13 count. It must be the perfectionist in him. I remember DeMark was a bit agonized when the SPX hit the 1474.71 high on 9/14. It never fulfilled the exact targets as the SPX was only a 12 count and short of his 3rd degree TD Trendfactor at 1478.27. Close enough was not good enough for him, lol. On the current 12 count, I’m with you. I believe the Bloomberg host got the days mixed up. Live TV is tough. Cheers! Art