Monday, July 7, 2014

There is another threat of the S&P 500 (SPX) recycling upwards through the daily charts. The 4 hour SPX will record a “9” count TD Sell Setup today, along with TD Sell Countdown/TD Combo Sell closing in on “13’s”. But by closing above the TD Trend Factor at 1979.79, this now indicates any pullbacks can be bought, stretching the market even further. From this vantage point, the monthly SPX is coming into a final “13” as soon as August. Note: Blog will be on vacation until early August. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1974.20 today.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1960.23 today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1936.16 on July 11, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.40 on July 31, 2014. 


 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-07-02 at 10.10.03 PMTaking inventory on the futures again. The S&P 500 e-minis (ES) have reached full price exhaustion and awaiting a bearish flip to turn things around. The Nasdaq e-minis (NQ) has recorded a “13” on TD Combo Sell and one count short of finishing TD Sell Countdown – could be today. The lone outlier is the Russell 2000 mini (TF), which is running solely on a TD Sell Setup @4. This is signaling some market turbulence is to be expected.

Market Update:  The jobs report today is indicating the economy has the ability to gain some footing going forward with a 288,000 payroll print. If this number is baked in the markets, equities should fail at some point today. If the cash S&P 500 (SPX) holds together, and closes above 1979.79, the TD Trend Factor, the case for a reversal weakens, as the TD counts are recycling again. It’s a short session for US markets today.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1975.25  today.

Screen Shot 2014-07-02 at 10.26.31 PMThe 4 hour SPX still has an active TD Sell Setup, currently at count “7’. This allows for another stab to the upside.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX trades above 1979.79 and closes below that level. Bearish if SPX closes below 1960.96.

Screen Shot 2014-07-02 at 10.28.31 PMIt’s a waiting game at this point. The close above/below 1979.79 is especially important today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs on July 3, 2014: SPX closes below 1949.44, Nasdaq closes below 4321.40, Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1165.21 (updated June 30, 2014).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).  


Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-07-01 at 9.08.38 PMCopper futures (HG)looked very dire back in early March when it dropped precipitously under the $3 bull/bear level. It also signaled a big weekly counts were going to recycle lower. In hindsight, it signaled a delayed bottom. Now copper is trending higher as it is trading above the 3.137 TDST Resistance level. Copper was expected to be sluggish at best, but this move higher is beginning to put doubts in that thought.

Market Update: The TD Trend Factor at 1979.79 has been tested on the S&P 500 (SPX). There are price exhaustion indications from the SPX and now the Nasdaq. The probability is high for a reversal. Tomorrow’s jobs report will be a good catalyst of which way equities want to run. Markets are still bullish, but warrants extreme caution.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX cannot close above 1979.49. 

Screen Shot 2014-07-01 at 8.01.28 PMThe current counts do allow for more upside. However, the market is getting increasingly dangerous as the daily charts have indicated.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1957.22.

Screen Shot 2014-07-01 at 8.03.30 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-01 at 8.08.30 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-01 at 8.14.20 PM Screen Shot 2014-07-01 at 8.17.19 PMHere is the DeMark TD Sequential/TD Combo inventory on the daily charts. SPX has recorded all “13’s” The Dow is one or two higher highs away from a “13” confluence. The Nasdaq reach a TD Sell Countdown and a TD Combo Sell “13” on the close yesterday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also reached a TD Sell Countdown “13″, but isn’t qualified since the RUT traded beneath the 1103.93 TDST Support. Using strict DeMark rules, that should rule out the notated “13”. It is notated simply to narrate a “what if” scenario.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs on July 3, 2014: SPX closes below 1949.44, Nasdaq closes below 4321.40, Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1165.21 (updated June 30, 2014).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd). 



Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Market update: The 13’s are coming in and stops are raised. The S&P 500 (SPX) TD Trend Factor at 1979.49 is viewed as maximum level the SPX is allowed to run up to. A sharp run up to that level, followed by failure is a good confirmation price exhaustion has reached its’ limits, perhaps at the end of the week when non-farm payrolls are announced.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1959.53, same as daily price flip.

Screen Shot 2014-06-30 at 9.39.18 PMThe 4 hour SPX timeframe has an active TD Sell Setup and can record a “9” this Thursday.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1959.53.

Screen Shot 2014-06-30 at 9.39.30 PMThe daily printed a TD Sell Countdown @13. This is the last “13” on the daily charts for the SPX. This signals a termination point is near.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs on July 3, 2014: SPX closes below 1949.44, Nasdaq closes below 4321.40, Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1165.21 (updated June 30, 2014).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).  


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday, June 30, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 10.41.55 AM Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 10.42.24 AMGoogle (GOOG) is also one of the stocks at the tail end of their counts. Unlike the analysis of last Friday’s analysis of Netflix, utilizing timeframe confluence, Google is best analyzed through timeframe continuity. This occurs when one timeframe reaches price exhaustion and another is still active. In Google’s case, the daily chart will likely reach a “9” count TD Sell Setup. It is not “perfected”. Therefore, a proper TD Sell Setup would be for Google to equal or exceed 582.45 first. Assuming this happens, the observation begins to see if GOOG can lateral into the TD Sell Countdown phase and continue higher. This will flag the weekly Google as the primary chart, as there is additional upside available – up to 608.33. If the current daily TD Sell Setup does signal a high, closing under 556.33 this week will reverse price flip the weekly and a close below 543.01, the tentative TDST Support, will damage the bull case significantly.

Market Update: The S&P 500 (SPX) is on the verge of completing the second “13” on the daily chart. If recorded and the shorter term 4 hour SPX has trouble maintaining momentum starting tomorrow, quick adjustments will need to be deployed as equity markets are tilting towards the bearish edge as more price exhaustion signals come through. This Thursday’s US job report should bring the next bout of volatility. Friday is a US holiday.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Back to neutral if SPX closes below 1957.26.

Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 10.23.16 AMThe 4 hour SPX has two competing bullish paths – one is through the renewed TD Sell Setup. A close above 1957.26 will suggest upward momentum is intact. The other is through TD Sell Countdown or TD Combo Sell. A close below 1957.26 suggests the SPX needs additional time to consolidate before tackling the upside again.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1949.48.

Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 10.40.44 AMThe daily SPX can record a TD Sell Countdown “13” by closing at 1959.89 or higher today. If printed, the “13” will signal the equities are beginning to become vulnerable to a selloff. Note where the bearish price flip level is at – 1949.48. Most traders will see that level as minor support, but since it is happening on the weekly timeframe, closing under 1949.49 can have longer term implications.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs on July 3, 2014: SPX closes below 1949.44, Nasdaq closes below 4321.40, Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1165.21.

Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 9.01.41 PM Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 9.06.25 PM Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 9.07.58 PM Screen Shot 2014-06-29 at 9.08.26 PMWhile the SPX and the Dow are at their “9” count TD Sell Setups, both the Nasdaq and the RUT have active TD Sell Setups. Therefore, one sure sign the weekly timeframe is no longer bullish if all the major indices price flip bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).  


Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Friday, June 27, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-06-26 at 10.07.49 PM Screen Shot 2014-06-27 at 7.12.01 AMNetflix (NFLX) is setting up to be a good short sell candidate. Since the bottoming process back in April, 2014, Netflix has hit DeMark extremes in both daily and weekly charts, all without making a fresh high – the daily chart has now recorded “13’s” in both TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell. The weekly has a TD Sell Setup “9” count. This confluence, combined with the monthly chart on the verge of a bearish price flip with a June close below 445.63 makes a good risk/reward short for aggressive traders. Trading against 445.63 or the highs at 450.82 makes a reasonable stop level.

Market Summary: The case for major market indices to print additional “13’s” still stands as the market corrects sideways. Many equities are already beginning to record “9” and “13” counts. Current examples being Netflix above or Tesla from last Wednesday. How these individual stocks perform around their own price exhaustion signals can help direct where the major indices are headed next.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX cannot close above 1959.73.

Screen Shot 2014-06-26 at 10.20.36 PMExpectations are high the SPX can continue the uptrend. There is enough time elapse since TD Sell Setup recorded a qualified “9” count on June 20, 2014. If the 4 hour SPX cannot break into a bullish momentum trend today, then a cautious approach will be taken.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1949.48, next Monday’s bearish price flip. 

Screen Shot 2014-06-26 at 10.22.04 PMAn official bullish confirmation status will occur if the SPX can price flip bullish by closing above 1962.61. If not, the SPX gets an extra day to exert itself.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1923.57 (updated June 23, 2014).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).  


Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-06-25 at 6.16.36 PMThe Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) can serve as an alternative indication of what the major market indices may do next. Since SMH recorded the final ’13” on June 19, 2014, it price flipped bearish in the next days, breaking the 24 consecutive TD Sell Setup counts held since May 19, 2014. Currently, TD Buy Setup is at bar “3” and a bullish recycle will need consideration if SMH closes above 49.36 today or tomorrow. If successful, this will bode well for the continued melt-up in the major indices.

MARKET UPDATE – Still looking at TD Sell Countdown on all indices to make a series of “13’s” across the cash and futures markets. They have a wide range to maneuver today to prove it still has a bit more upside. However, the opening trades this morning are printing lower lows from yesterday’s session which is challenging that notion. If the S&P 500 (SPX) begins a process of alternating daily price flips, bullish options will wane.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Back to neutral if 4 hour SPX closes below 1950.17. 

Screen Shot 2014-06-25 at 5.48.04 PMA close below 1950.17 indicates instability.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Same as Short Term Outlook; Back to neutral if 4 hour SPX closes below 1950.17. 

Screen Shot 2014-06-25 at 5.50.34 PM Screen Shot 2014-06-25 at 5.56.14 PM Screen Shot 2014-06-25 at 5.58.18 PMThere is a good chance the SPX will reverse price flip again, but the interpretation may just be the markets need more time to reset, and not necessarily bearish, unless the SPX tanks lower than 1950.17 at the close.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1923.57 (updated June 23, 2014).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd). 


Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment