Monday, December 22, 2014

QUICK UPDATE: It used to be the market would climb the stairs higher and take the elevator down. Now it’s taking the stairs down and riding a rocket ship higher. Expect more of these peak/valley volatility going forward into 2015. Aside from the long term monthly S&P 500 (SPX), which is bullish, all time frames are back to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1972.74. 

Screen Shot 2014-12-21 at 8.27.13 PMIn no time, highs are already being challenged as shown on the daily SPX.


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Monday, December 15, 2014

 

 

Screen Shot 2014-12-14 at 2.31.04 PMOn the chart above, there has been a high price correlation between the monthly charts from Crude Oil (/CL) and the iShares Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM). For crude, the persistent drop in prices could get worse before it gets better, as the monthly charts that has been mired in a long term trading range is breaking down lower as interpreted by the TTM_Squeeze, the volatility and momentum indicator. The relationship between crude and EEM can also be seen in the chart. The spillover effect from lower crude prices to lower prices on the EEM seems high probable given the technical chart. Countries such a Venezuela, which depend on high oil prices to service their debt, are in a troubled spot with plunging crude prices. The lower crude prices are also wreaking havoc on US equity prices. When the monthly S&P 500 (SPX) finally records a bearish price flip, that will be the signal the technical picture has officially turned sour with alternating bouts of gains and losses.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch back to neutral if SPX closes above 2035.12.

Screen Shot 2014-12-12 at 8.51.50 PMThe SPX has successfully traded under the TDST Support level at 2049.35 and expectations are now for a completion of either TD Buy Countdown currently at “2″ or TD Combo Buy currently at “6″.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes above 2059.82. 

Screen Shot 2014-12-14 at 10.15.58 PMThe SPX closed just above the 50 day moving average. Considering the short term SPX has broken through its’ TDST Support and a fresh bearish price flip from the weekly SPX, expect the SPX to continue the selloff.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes above 2063.50 on December 19, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-12-14 at 12.26.13 PM Screen Shot 2014-12-14 at 4.10.38 PMScreen Shot 2014-12-14 at 1.23.57 PM Screen Shot 2014-12-14 at 1.37.46 PMThe SPX, Dow, Nasdaq, and the RUT, all recorded price drops significant enough to produce bearish price flips. Look for their respective TDST Supports to be tested – The trick is to see if the weekly TD Buy Setup records a “9”  above their levels.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2003.37 on December 31, 2014.

 

 

 

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Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Equity markets remain resilient in the face of the TD Sequential and TD Combo price exhaustion signals. For now and since the recent bottom, we will remain in neutral status, as the weekly charts get closer to their own price exhaustion signals.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes above 2075.46.

Screen Shot 2014-12-08 at 8.53.43 PMThe drop yesterday is supported by the cluster of price exhaustion signals on the 4 hour SPX. However, to give some notion that this initial bearish downturn has energy, the 2049.35 TDST Support needs to be broken.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes above 2075.46, same as Short Term Outlook.

Screen Shot 2014-12-08 at 9.15.50 PM Screen Shot 2014-12-08 at 8.37.43 PM Screen Shot 2014-12-08 at 8.41.20 PM Screen Shot 2014-12-08 at 8.48.57 PMAll major indices have recorded bearish price flips yet again, but the SPX is doing it’s best to correct sideways. For the Dow, it went into another leg higher after recording a pair of 13’s, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) struggles to move higher after recording a TD Sell Countdown “13”.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2039.82 on December 12, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-12-07 at 5.38.48 PMThe weekly SPX is one count away from recording a “13” on TD Sell Countdown. If completed, it will join TD Combo Sell “13” and provide a stronger argument that being bullish becomes increasingly tenuous.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2003.37 on December 31, 2014.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Focusing solely on the S&P 500, there is price exhaustion, as defined by TD Sequential and TD Combo, across the daily and weekly timeframes. On the monthly timeframe, ’13’s’ have already been recorded this year. Even though the SPX is currently trading about the designated monthly  ’13’ counts, a selloff is still viable considering the SPX is still trading within DeMark’s risk level at 2105.30.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip back to neutral if SPX closes above 2067.03, the daily bullish price flip. 

Screen Shot 2014-12-01 at 8.23.10 PMThe SPX is primed to explore the downside again. The TD Sell Setup has been ‘perfected’, (denoted by the down blue arrow) and followed by a bearish price flip. The last part of the equation is to see if the SPX has the ability to cross under the TDST Support at 2049.35.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2067.03.

Screen Shot 2014-12-01 at 8.27.11 PMThe daily SPX trend that started October 17, 2014, is at the point of price exhaustion. It is here where new narratives can be drawn out – choppy to higher – flat to lower – or just another hard selloff.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2039.82 on December 5, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-12-01 at 8.46.22 PMThe SPX recorded a TD Combo Sell @13 last week. The confluence of price exhaustion across all timeframes is nearing completion.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2003.37 on December 31, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-12-01 at 9.04.41 PM


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Monday, November 24, 2014

More central bank action, this time from China’s PBoC, keeps the market juiced. From a TD indicator perspective, equity markets are extending to some exhaustion points on the weekly charts. These exhaustion points were absent from October’s down draft. Since there is some confluence with the daily charts, some uncertainty and volatility is expected. In hindsight, switching to bullish was the way to go on the short term charts. As a result, tactically staying patient and neutral until the character of the pullback can be judged.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2051.80, the bearish price flip on the daily.

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 8.06.39 PMThe TDST Support at 2015.86 still has significance, as it matches closely with the bearish price flips on the weekly and monthly SPX.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2051.80, the bearish price flip on the daily chart. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 8.29.46 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-21 at 8.43.34 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.20.57 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.25.31 PMIn an effort to look for stress points in the bullish trend, the upside burst last Friday looks unconvincing if judged by the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. Contradicting this, the Dow bursted to the upside right after recording a pair of “13’s”. The Dow needs to begin reversing to keep the TD exhaustion signals relevant. The SPX “13” watch is still in progress for TD Sell Countdown “13″, currently at “11”.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2018.05 on November 28, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.29.42 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.34.15 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.38.29 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.39.17 PMThe Nasdaq has recorded a TD Combo Sell “13” last week, and this week can bring a whole slew of “13’s” for the SPX and the Dow if another higher high and higher close come together. The Russell 2000 is still mired in a trading range.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


 

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Monday, November 17, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-11-16 at 7.30.22 PMCurrently in the overnight session, the Nikkei futures are down about 2.5% as a result of another confirmed recession and the spillover effect it might have on Japan’s government policies. With the daily TD Sequential locked into TD Sell Countdown, expectations are for the trend to continue higher until the counts are fulfilled. Selling under the consolidation range at 16,720 will threaten that bullish expectation.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2015.86, the 4 hour SPX TDST Support.

Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.18.47 PMThe sideways movement is relieving the overbought conditions. However there is no tag for the bullish outlook at this point, as the daily and weekly TD counts are nearing their TD exhaustion points.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2015.86, the TDST Support for the 4 hour SPX. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.20.43 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 4.11.27 PMChanges in the outlook has not changed as the SPX is trading in a narrow range. Take note of the Russell 2000 (RUT) underperformance.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1964.58 on November 21, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.23.29 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.54.52 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.58.34 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 4.07.24 PMNot much change here. The weekly charts remain similar to last week’s charts.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


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Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 8.22.30 PMIt was previously thought that oil prices were about to entertain an upside breakout. But that proposal is under threat as oil price are plunging.  Fundamentally, it is difficult to pinpoint a single answer – slower growth in China or Saudi induced supply – are some of the common themes. Technically, it is possible oil prices are expanding their trading range, but the association between the Bollinger bands and the Keltner channel on the monthly crude oil futures shows a momentum turn for much lower prices. Also, the TTM_Squeeze shows oil prices have been coiling for almost 3 years and now it’s showing momentum to the downside. If crude breaks under 71.67, the TDST Support, oil can get increasingly bearish as problems related to production, capex becomes a factor.

For equities, it is a waiting game to see how much higher the indices can go before experiencing the DeMark price exhaustion indicators.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2038.03 today.

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 5.56.55 PMThe trifecta of blue arrows have been recorded. The 4 hour SPX is now free to show some consternation. A close below 2015.86, the TDST Support level, will provide additional confidence that a decent pullback is underway.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2015.86, the TDST Support for the 4 hour SPX. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 8.43.12 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.09.53 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.15.48 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.19.13 PMOn the various daily charts, the Dow is the first to capture a price exhaustion signal through a TD Combo Sell @13. TD Combo Sell has been successful in front running a reversal the last two occurrences and can go for three for three. On the Nasdaq, another higher close should seal a TD Combo Sell “13”, while the Russell 2000 continues to meander countwise.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1886.76 on November 14, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


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