Monday, November 24, 2014

More central bank action, this time from China’s PBoC, keeps the market juiced. From a TD indicator perspective, equity markets are extending to some exhaustion points on the weekly charts. These exhaustion points were absent from October’s down draft. Since there is some confluence with the daily charts, some uncertainty and volatility is expected. In hindsight, switching to bullish was the way to go on the short term charts. As a result, tactically staying patient and neutral until the character of the pullback can be judged.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2051.80, the bearish price flip on the daily.

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 8.06.39 PMThe TDST Support at 2015.86 still has significance, as it matches closely with the bearish price flips on the weekly and monthly SPX.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2051.80, the bearish price flip on the daily chart. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 8.29.46 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-21 at 8.43.34 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.20.57 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.25.31 PMIn an effort to look for stress points in the bullish trend, the upside burst last Friday looks unconvincing if judged by the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. Contradicting this, the Dow bursted to the upside right after recording a pair of “13’s”. The Dow needs to begin reversing to keep the TD exhaustion signals relevant. The SPX “13” watch is still in progress for TD Sell Countdown “13″, currently at “11”.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2018.05 on November 28, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.29.42 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.34.15 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.38.29 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 9.39.17 PMThe Nasdaq has recorded a TD Combo Sell “13” last week, and this week can bring a whole slew of “13’s” for the SPX and the Dow if another higher high and higher close come together. The Russell 2000 is still mired in a trading range.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday, November 17, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-11-16 at 7.30.22 PMCurrently in the overnight session, the Nikkei futures are down about 2.5% as a result of another confirmed recession and the spillover effect it might have on Japan’s government policies. With the daily TD Sequential locked into TD Sell Countdown, expectations are for the trend to continue higher until the counts are fulfilled. Selling under the consolidation range at 16,720 will threaten that bullish expectation.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2015.86, the 4 hour SPX TDST Support.

Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.18.47 PMThe sideways movement is relieving the overbought conditions. However there is no tag for the bullish outlook at this point, as the daily and weekly TD counts are nearing their TD exhaustion points.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2015.86, the TDST Support for the 4 hour SPX. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.20.43 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 4.11.27 PMChanges in the outlook has not changed as the SPX is trading in a narrow range. Take note of the Russell 2000 (RUT) underperformance.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1964.58 on November 21, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.23.29 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.54.52 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 3.58.34 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-15 at 4.07.24 PMNot much change here. The weekly charts remain similar to last week’s charts.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 8.22.30 PMIt was previously thought that oil prices were about to entertain an upside breakout. But that proposal is under threat as oil price are plunging.  Fundamentally, it is difficult to pinpoint a single answer – slower growth in China or Saudi induced supply – are some of the common themes. Technically, it is possible oil prices are expanding their trading range, but the association between the Bollinger bands and the Keltner channel on the monthly crude oil futures shows a momentum turn for much lower prices. Also, the TTM_Squeeze shows oil prices have been coiling for almost 3 years and now it’s showing momentum to the downside. If crude breaks under 71.67, the TDST Support, oil can get increasingly bearish as problems related to production, capex becomes a factor.

For equities, it is a waiting game to see how much higher the indices can go before experiencing the DeMark price exhaustion indicators.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2038.03 today.

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 5.56.55 PMThe trifecta of blue arrows have been recorded. The 4 hour SPX is now free to show some consternation. A close below 2015.86, the TDST Support level, will provide additional confidence that a decent pullback is underway.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2015.86, the TDST Support for the 4 hour SPX. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 8.43.12 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.09.53 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.15.48 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.19.13 PMOn the various daily charts, the Dow is the first to capture a price exhaustion signal through a TD Combo Sell @13. TD Combo Sell has been successful in front running a reversal the last two occurrences and can go for three for three. On the Nasdaq, another higher close should seal a TD Combo Sell “13”, while the Russell 2000 continues to meander countwise.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1886.76 on November 14, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday, November 10, 2014

The impact of last week’s jobs report, ECB were muted, suggesting some pause in the near term. The main hypothesis longer term still remains a choppy market. However, after a modest pullback, the bullish element can be introduced along with the bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2030.89.

Screen Shot 2014-11-09 at 7.38.17 PMOn the 4 hour SPX, TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell have registered their “13” exhaustion points levels denoted by the down blue arrows. Given the daily indices are still trending higher, the 4 hour SPX may exhibit alternating price flips, indicating a sideways pullback.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2012.10.

Screen Shot 2014-11-09 at 7.36.55 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-09 at 7.01.21 PMThe trending component of TD Sequential, TD Sell Countdown, along with TD Combo Sell, are still intact on the SPX. Any cracks in this trend would show up with a bearish price flip on the active TD Sell Setup, which is currently uninterrupted at 9 + 7 candles. The RUT is already exhibiting sideways behavior.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1886.76 on November 14, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-09 at 7.43.32 PMOn the SPX weekly, it is difficult to tag a bullish overview considering the TD Sell Countdown and TD Sell Combo Sell are nearing maturity.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday, November 3, 2014

The incredibly sharp run by the S&P 500 (SPX) was so swift, it left me a vastly underinvested portfolio. Just as stunning was the Bank of Japan announcement that they will buy assets across the board, sending shares of global markets spectacularly higher. With new highs on the Dow and Nasdaq, it appears that high degree selloff has been delayed. The weekly timeframes, which shows a clear successful test of TDST Support levels, could be powering higher and join the monthly timeframes in recording price exhaustion levels. This brings a weekly/monthly projected price exhaustion confluence in early December.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1994.40.

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 3.09.28 PMThe 4 hour SPX is nearing the point of price exhaustion for the short term with TD Sell Countdown three counts away from a ’13’ and TD Combo Sell one count away. If the market continues to be bullish, the next selloff should be buyable, as suggested by recent market breadth readings.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1985.05. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 3.13.12 PMThe SPX is scaling higher now that TD Sell Countdown has been established. The TD Trend Factor at 2027.81 may not be significant since a ‘9’ count TD Buy Setup has been established after the recent high on September 19, 2014 at 2010.40.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1906.13 on November 7, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.29.30 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.38.49 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.39.41 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.41.43 PMAll indices asserted themselves higher with a bullish price flip after testing their respective TDST Support levels. The assumption now is all weekly charts will move on and fulfill their full counts on Countdown and Combo. The one caveat is the monthly charts are at price exhaustion levels.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.47.28 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.48.21 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.51.06 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.54.23 PMWhile the ’13’s’ on the SPX are expected to disrupt the bullish trend, it is still technically bullish with a now 27 straight months without a bearish price flip. Adding to the SPX ’13’ cluster is the Dow being one count away from a ’13’ on TD Combo Sell. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is also close to recording ’13’s’ even though it has an active TD Buy Setup. The most notable is the Nasdaq, which just recorded a TD Combo Sell @13 in October. While the market continues to power higher, it is not without risks.


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-10-28 at 8.28.05 PMThe power of the FOMC is shown above with 4 trillion dollars on the Fed balance sheet. Today is Fed day and Quantitative Easing (QE) is about to end. Currently there are bullish factors at work with upside breadth being so strong. This could translate into new highs but we’re sticking with choppy – opportunities both long and short.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1961.30. 

Screen Shot 2014-10-28 at 8.53.18 PMThe 4 hour SPX is in TD Sell Countdown mode and it has cleared the TDST Resistance at 1968.72. While sticking with a bearish bias, closing above the weekly and monthly outlook thresholds will swing the edge to the upside.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1961.30, same as Short Term Outlook. 

Screen Shot 2014-10-28 at 9.02.46 PMScreen Shot 2014-10-28 at 9.06.49 PMThe Russell 2000 (RUT) is displaying signs that this rally can continue with the recent bar breaching the TDST Resistance at 1146.92. However the SPX should be able to record a TD Sell Setup @9 today, likely under its TDST Resistance at 2010. 40, providing bears some equal billing. At this point, it is best to see what the market provides.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 1967.90 on October 31, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1960.23 on October 31, 2014. 


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday, October 27, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-10-25 at 8.21.56 PMIf there is indicator that is flashing bullish on the S&P 500 (SPX) chart, it’s the McClellan Oscillator which measures market breadth. Generally speaking when the oscillator gets up to 150 level, it signals heavy buying pressure where sustainable rallies are probable. But there are times where plus 150 readings are also categorized as an “all-in” final thrust higher and signals a correction. That interpretation can be applied to the reading in August where the McClellan Oscillator was at a peak and TD indicators were at price exhaustion levels. But the recent situation last week  is different as the +150 readings come off downside TD price exhaustion levels. In the SPX updates below, note the TD Price Flip levels on the weekly and monthly timeframes for the SPX this week. They are all clustered together between 1960 and 1970. Current prognostication is for the market to test the lows but if the weekly SPX turns neutral, market direction will require a rethink.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1950.35. 

Screen Shot 2014-10-25 at 8.48.24 PMScreen Shot 2014-10-25 at 8.51.18 PM Equities have rallied sharp enough to place doubt on the bearish picture. Therefore, although the 2 hour SPX is nearing upside price exhaustion and the 4 hour SPX trading just underneath the TDST Resistance, it will be difficult to tell if the next selloff will be just a sharp as the run up.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1941.28, Nasdaq closes below 4419.48 and the RUT closes below 1112.85. 

Screen Shot 2014-10-25 at 8.58.06 PMScreen Shot 2014-10-25 at 9.01.08 PMOn the daily charts, it’s shaping up to look like trading ranges will dominate. Look to see if the Russell 2000 (RUT) can lead, as it is on an unperfected TD Sell Setup. If ‘perfected’ with a higher high, and subsequently price flips bearish, the remaining indices are likely to turn lower with the RUT.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 1967.90 on October 31, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-10-25 at 9.14.29 PM Screen Shot 2014-10-25 at 9.13.04 PM Screen Shot 2014-10-25 at 9.06.35 PM Screen Shot 2014-10-25 at 9.04.57 PMDespite the strong finish to the week, all the weekly indices are on TD Buy Setups. If any of the indices price flips bullish this week, this will provide additional evidence that markets will remain choppy.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1960.23 on October 31, 2014. 


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment