Monday, September 15, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.46.47 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.47.29 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.48.34 AMThe launch of Apple’s new iPhone 6 series has provided some volatility to Apple’s (AAPL) stock last Tuesday, September 9. Utilizing all the timeframes, Apple has a bullish edge. From the daily chart, there were a series of exhaustion points to warn a “sell the news” event was probable. The 94.84 TDST Support serves as a good intermediate stop. While the pattern is still unfolding on the daily chart,  the bullish condition still exists from the weekly. Other than the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, the TD exhaustion points have not shown up yet. However, from the monthly AAPL chart, the first ’13’ has been recorded through TD Sell Countdown. If Apple stays bullish, a cluster of exhaustion points will come in December and January, 2015 for the monthly charts. Therefore, in the intermediate term, unless 94.84 is broken to the downside, Apple is still in good field position.

For the equity markets, the S&P 500 (SPX) is drifting lower. With the Fed meeting ahead this Wednesday, the active TD Buy Setup could indicate a reversal as soon as this Thursday. Opinions aside, the TD counts will help dictate the probable direction. More below:


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip back to bullish if SPX closes above 1997.36, Monday September 15, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.51.31 AMThe short term SPX has switch from sideways to higher to sideways to lower. Nevertheless, the overbought condition is being worked off and further upside is expected to continue in the days ahead.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Same as Short Term Outlook, switch to bullish if SPX closes above 1997.36 on Monday, September 15, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.04.48 AMThere is an active TD Buy Setup @ 5 on the SPX, but the trading range is relatively narrow and it would not take much to disrupt the count prior to completing the minimum of a ‘9’ count. If the current TD Buy Setup does finalize with a ‘9’ this Thursday, September 17, 2014, that would make an ideal point for the SPX to resume the uptrend in the Fed announcement aftermath.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the SPX cannot close above 1988.40 on Friday, September 19, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.14.31 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.16.05 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.18.11 AM

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.18.56 AMIt would not take much for the weekly SPX to flip to neutral. If the SPX does flip to neutral, this would be a good signal equity markets are beginning to consolidate longer term, as a TD Sell Setup trend is having difficulty recording a ‘9’ count. Other major indices have similar setups.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 


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Monday, September 8, 2014

The surprise QE announcement by Mario Draghi and the weak non-farm payroll numbers kept equities higher. Data for the upcoming week is light and without any obvious catalyst, the sights for the S&P 500 (SPX) are at the 2027.81 TD Trend Factor level. It is considered an important level, and it especially powerful if combined with TD Sequential. DeMark had experimented with Fibonacci ratios and came up with these TD Trend Factor levels he often cites in the media as major reversal points. Just as the previous 1979.49 TD Trend Factor on the SPX, recorded back in July 3, 2014, these levels often provide equities angst. But they should always be paired with TD Sequential to strengthen the price exhaustion signal.

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX matches or exceeds 2011.17 intraday and does not close below 2005.56 mid-session OR bearish if SPX closes below 1997.71 end of day. 


Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.07.43 PMSince the second ’13’ recorded on August 26, 2014, there has been a set of four alternating price flips, indicating the consolidation efforts of the SPX equities. If the short term 4 hour SPX is successful in turning bullish, the next TD Trend Factor has been identified at 2027.81. Once again, TD Trend Factors are Fibonacci related stopping points, and combined with TD Sequential, it offers added confidence of a possible reversal.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1997.71, same as Short Term Outlook.

Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.10.10 PMDespite the sideways action, the SPX never recorded a reverse price flip. This keeps the trajectory towards the upside. if so, the bigger battle may occur at the TD Trend Factor at 2027.81.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1955.06 on Friday, September 12, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.25.05 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.27.17 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.29.37 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.30.09 PMWith the exception of the Russell 2000, all the weekly charts are still firmly bullish and exhaustion levels are still weeks away.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014.


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Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 12.52.17 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.02.10 PMThis week’s primary events revolve around the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US non-farm payroll release. The EUR/USD cross has been sinking as the vast economic deterioration in the Eurozone has brought up the prospects of an official Quantitative Easing program. The question now will this Thursday’s ECB meeting will halt the EUR/USD slide. At this point, it is doubtful the ECB will take major steps to ease monetary policy. While it seems likely the euro will continue to struggle, the daily and weekly TD charts suggest the euro is about to begin efforts to consolidate. Even from the confluence of the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is still making new lows, but the bet is for a “buy the rumor and sell the news’ move. Also supporting this is the weekly EUR/USD is on a TD Buy Setup @8, which has been already been ‘perfected’, further indicating a low is near.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX, on Tuesday, September 2, 2014, closes below 1998.06 mid-session or 1997.02 on the close. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.27.12 PMThe short term 4 hour SPX officially took a neutral stance on the close on August 29, 2014, with a bearish price flip on the close. Both TD Sell Countdown and TD Sell Combo recorded ’13’s’ and depending on how equities respond, “Neutral” and “Bearish” are the only options for the moment in the short term.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 2000.02 on Tuesday, September 2, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.40.24 PMThe rally stays in bullish form with TD Sell Countdown, the second component of TD Sequential, has suggested the up trend still has more to go. However TD Combo Sell can record a ’13’ in the days ahead. Trading above SPX 1985 will keep the short/intermediate term intact until further notice.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Turn to neutral if SPX closes below 1931.59, or if Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1131.35, Friday, September 5, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.40.40 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.42.04 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.43.55 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.50.11 PMThe premise here is the RUT is playing catch-up to the rest of the indices. If the SPX begins to show trouble, it would show up in the Russell first.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.57.09 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.59.03 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 2.00.03 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 2.01.48 PMThe charts above give the big picture view from the bottom in 2009. Since 2012, the SPX has not experienced a bearish price flip, but with another set of ’13’ count confluences, expectations are for a termination point as soon as this month. The Nasdaq can also complete a TD Combo Sell ’13’ this month.


 

 

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Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-26 at 8.08.17 PMThe daily Tesla (TSLA) chart has a nice rhythm when determining a short/intermediate top. In the last three completed TD Sell Setups, the recorded ‘9’ count, denoted by the blue down arrow, has helped provide the timing of TSLA’s pullback. The most recent ’9’ count is now combined with TD Sell Countdown @13 today. Following the same script, Tesla should pullback here and the ideal buy point would be the rising trendline, which is now aligned with the 50 day moving average.

An historic day for the S&P 500 (SPX) at 2000 – feels funny saying that.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1998.19.

Screen Shot 2014-08-26 at 8.25.58 PMMarkets can’t go straight up and if there is ceiling to the SPX, the SPX 2000 level is it. TD Sell Countdown is one count away from a ’13’.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1992.37 today.

Screen Shot 2014-08-26 at 8.39.25 PMSPX still has strength and now threatening to go into TD Sell Countdown mode. Although I do not place much emphasis on it, the TD Risk Level, normally used as stops, is still valid as the SPX close is below 2002.70.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 29, 2014.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29, 2014. 


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Monday, August 25, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.25.42 PMThe 10-year US Treasury yield as represented by the monthly CBOE 10-year Treasury Index (TNX) is still crawling lower. This is helping the equity markets stay afloat longer than they probably should. With the current monthly DeMark count at TD Buy Setup at ‘6’, a perfected ‘8’ count can occur in October, several basis points above the 16.14 TDST Support level. From there, rates can either spike even higher or continue to drift sideways. Either way, the low made back in July 2012 is expected to hold. Equity markets should begin to pull back this week.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1992.31.

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.31.59 PMIt is now prudent to take a cautionary approach by setting the bar higher on the TD counts. The SPX would now need to clear new closing highs at this point to stay on the bullish side.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1981.60 today.

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.36.19 PMThe daily SPX TD Sell Setup has recorded a ‘9’ count last Thursday. It is now we wait for the next outcome – which is likely a pullback, followed by new highs.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 29, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.39.35 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.42.55 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.50.35 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.51.48 PMThe weekly SPX reasserted itself with a bullish price flip, along with the secondary indices – Dow (DJI), Nasdaq (COMPQ), Russell 2000 (RUT). The RUT has had a bit more trouble staying bullish since the TD Combo ’13’ on March 3, 2014. The Nasdaq chart is the one current outlier. The highs made by the Nasdaq last week has ‘perfected’ the TD Sell Setup. If the Nasdaq begins to deviate from the expected bullish run up, there is a reasonable chance markets are displaying a topping process that are not concurrent with other indices.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th. 


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Friday, August 21, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.08.28 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.08.07 PMThe daily chart of Apple (AAPL), similar to the S&P 500 (SPX), is running into a price exhaustion wall. Also similar is a large degree selloff is not expected just yet, taking the weekly chart’s TD Sequential counts have not hit a maximum point. Apple’s major event will be on September 9th, where they will likely debut the iPhone 6 and maybe some other peripheral products. Some consolidation leading up to the event will likely set up another run higher. Expect another analysis update check, leading up to the media day event.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1986.47 today. 

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.34.12 PMTD Combo Sell is one count away from recording a ’13”. Even though the market needs to relieve the overbought conditions, it’s bullish until it officially isn’t – at 1986.47.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if daily SPX closes below 1971.74.

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.39.56 PMTD Sequential’s first component, TD Sell Setup has registered a ‘9’ count and typically some form of price consolidation will occur. But given the vertical nature of the move, and the short term 4 hour SPX chart on an extended TD Sell Setup run, this suggests there is more upside after an expected pullback around today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 1978.34 or bearish if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 22nd. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th. 


 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday, August 21, 2014

Update to the prelude to the Jackson Hole gathering, along with the Janet Yellen address this Friday. The DeMark TD Sequential counts on both the S&P 500 (SPX) 4 hour and daily timeframe will show price exhaustion signals as soon as Friday. Both are in collusion for a fall. But since the daily TDST Resistance at 1984.85 has been breached, there will be consideration to buy pullbacks yet again.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1981.48 at the close of Thursday’s session.

Screen Shot 2014-08-20 at 10.43.55 PMThe SPX 4 hour short term timeframe is on a power momentum move, as TD Sell Setup has recorded 17 consecutive bars higher. It is nearing a termination point with TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell closing in on their respective 13’s. The first can occur with TD Combo Sell recording a possible ’13’ on Friday.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX daily closes below 1955.06.

Screen Shot 2014-08-20 at 10.44.12 PMTD Sell Setup has been ‘perfected’ and can reach a ‘9’ count Thursday, setting up for the beginning of some kind of price give back this Friday. Now with the SPX trading above the TDST Resistance at 1984.85, a pullback under it should result in another run for higher highs.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 1978.34 or bearish if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 22nd. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th. 


 

 

 

 

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