Monday, September 29, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 5.40.25 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 5.45.09 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 5.47.07 PMUS Dollar on a serious run and on a major breakout. While it could be a sign that US monetary policy is beginning to normalize, it also creates some near term disruptions to accommodate asset allocation changes. The daily DeMark US Dollar index (DXY) is recording a pair of “13’s” and though this signals price exhaustion for that timeframe, longer term strength looks to continue as the weekly DXY is on a TD Sell Countdown @3, along with an uninterrupted TD Sell Setup @9 + 2. The monthly DXY tells a clearer picture with the Keltner/Bollinger (TTM_Squeeze) volatility indicator showing positive momentum. The thought is to allow the monthly TD Sell Setup attempt to record a “9” count and take it from there.

Equity markets are showing some volatility, usually associated with a selloff in stocks. A weak seasonal pattern is here and taking hold.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if 4 hour SPX closes above 1998.39 today. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 8.36.53 PMAlthough the recent selloff was swift and created some technical damage, the TD Sequential counts are missing due to price volatility. Under normal circumstances, a bullish price flip for the 4 hour SPX can occur today by closing above 1966.56. However, that is not indicative of a trend reversal for the short term. Therefore, utilizing shorter duration timeframes can help. In this case for today, the designated bullish marker is the 30 and 60 minute TDST Resistance level at 1998.39 and 1995.41, respectively.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Same as short term, neutral if SPX closes above 1998.39. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 8.51.38 PMBoth SPX TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell are still active. Those counts will disappear if the current TD Buy Setup records a “9”. If a full TD Buy Setup is not able to record a “9”, then the possibility of a run towards the TD Trend Factor at 2027.81 still exists.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1960.23, the monthly SPX price flip for October. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 6.24.20 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 6.25.04 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 6.26.22 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-28 at 8.55.43 PMMost major indices have price flipped bearish. The lone exception is the Dow, which needs to close below 17,137.36 this week to price flip bearish. For the SPX, it would be fairly easy for the current TD Buy Setup to record a “2” count, but it wouldn’t be necessarily bearish. However, a close below 1960.23, the price flip level for the SPX in October, will show the bearish tendency is on track.


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Monday, September 22, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 8.54.24 PMThe weekly USD/JPY shows the currency cross is about to show a high as clusters of exhaustion points are beginning to record. However, there is no stopping Abenomics. The BoJ president Haruhiko Kuroda is a staunch supporter of the Quantitative Easing program in Japan. He believes the forced yen weakness is a plus for the economy. With that said, it’s difficult to believe the yen will reverse anytime soon. As such, the weekly TD Sequential chart can record a TD Sell Countdown ’13’ this week to go along with the ‘9’ count TD Sell Setup last week. Given the BoJ’s wide accommodation of QE, the USD/JPY is likely to repeat the sideways action back in early 2014.

For US equities, headwinds are coming and equity indexes are ripe for a fall. What cannot be answered is, will it be a meaningful correction or a prolonged sloppy, choppy trading. What is likely not to happen is meaningful upside. Considering the semi-confluence of TD exhaustion points among various timeframes, the likelihood of a top for the year seems near. With that opinion, there is less emphasis on long setups.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2010.10 mid-session or below 2011.44 end-of-day.

Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.27.37 PMThe 4 hour SPX is on a non-perfected TD Sell Setup. What is required to ‘perfect’ the count is a high equal to or greater than bar 7’s high of 2019.26. Once done, the next step is to see if the SPX has the ability to pull the market lower. The potential new TDST Support will be at 1979.06. If there is a close below that TDST level, longer duration charts are at risk in turning bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1998.98.

Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.27.37 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.31.27 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.32.32 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.33.32 PMThere is a concentration of exhaustion points spread among various indices. The SPX is a few bullish days in recording some blue, down arrows. The Dow recorded a TD Combo Sell “13” at the close of last Friday, indicating the Dow is at risk of a reversal. The Nasdaq is one count away from a “13’ for a TD Combo Sell – A close above TD Combo Sell bar 11’s close at 4598.19 and a high equal to/greater than the high of TD Sell Setup bar 2 will do it. From the more sickly RUT, it is on the verge of closing below the TDST Support at 1147.45. Taken as a whole, the call for lower prices begins.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 2003.37 and bearish if closes below 1985.54 on Friday, September 26, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.36.27 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.37.12 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.38.01 PM Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 9.39.02 PMWhile the SPX, Dow, and the Nasdaq are technically bullish, the RUT has reversed into a weekly bearish price flip. If the RUT keeps the active TD Buy Setup going, there is a great chance the remaining indices will follow lower.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 


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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-16 at 10.02.15 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-16 at 10.17.08 PMThe TD interpretation of Tesla Motors (TSLA) is bullish, but nearing a termination point. The daily chart has a downward momentum count of TD Buy Setup @3. However, it’s the non TD rising trendline and 50 day moving average that can give TSLA support, just as it has done since June 2014. A look at the weekly charts shows a bullish trend nearing price exhaustion: The weekly TD Sell setup is 2 counts away, TD Sell Countdown is 1 count away, and TD Sell Combo, 2 counts away. Therefore, even if Tesla finds support at the 50 day MA, it is at the intermediate/long term warning stage as suggested by the weekly charts.

Fed day is today and both the 4 hour and daily S&P 500 (SPX) have both recorded reverse price flips ahead of the actual announcement. Absent of surprises, expectations are for one more high, up to the TD Trend Factor at 2027.81.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch back to neutral if SPX closes below 1984.03.

Screen Shot 2014-09-16 at 10.36.40 PMAfter a few days of sideway to down price action, today had the most significant move. Unless the FOMC gives us unexpected language, the SPX should be free to challenge the highs, possibly for the last time this year.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Same as Short Term Outlook, switch back to neutral if SPX closes below 1984.03. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-16 at 10.47.57 PMNow that the SPX is back to bullish, the days ahead will see if the bullish price flip will morph into a qualified TD Sell Setup at the 2027.81 TD Trend Factor.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1955.06 on Friday, September 12, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 


 

 

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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-15 at 8.44.08 PMThe upcoming FOMC meeting is not the only event risk for equities. The referendum in Scotland is also on the table. The uncertainty is present as different polls score it both “Yes” and “No” for an independent Scotland. The S&P 500 (SPX) exhaustion price and time range are shown again above. The top view is if another SPX high is met, the assumption is it will occur at the 2027.81 TD Trend Factor, and the market should start experiencing a wide range consolidation. The secondary view is the markets are already in a large wide range consolidation mode.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 1997.36, the short term TDST Resistance clusters.

Screen Shot 2014-09-15 at 8.51.56 PMA bullish price flip on the 4 hour SPX would normally indicate a change in momentum. If the SPX can surpass the combination of the 15, 30, 60 minute TDST Resistance levels from 1993.07 – 1997.36, that would increase the likelihood  that a sustainable rally is underway. Until then, the 4 hour SPX still has an active TD Buy Setup @4 that is still playing out.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 1995.69

Screen Shot 2014-09-15 at 7.12.52 PMThe daily TD Buy Setup is on bar ‘6’. If the TD Buy Setup stays active, a bullish reversal can occur as soon as this Wednesday with a ‘perfected’ 8 count. All is needed is a low equal to or lower than the low print of bar 6 or bar 7. Also, the 4 hour SPX can record a ‘perfected’ 8 count this Wednesday – setting up a bullish reversal confluence – ideally this Wednesday or Thursday.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1955.06 on Friday, September 12, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 


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Monday, September 15, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.46.47 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.47.29 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.48.34 AMThe launch of Apple’s new iPhone 6 series has provided some volatility to Apple’s (AAPL) stock last Tuesday, September 9. Utilizing all the timeframes, Apple has a bullish edge. From the daily chart, there were a series of exhaustion points to warn a “sell the news” event was probable. The 94.84 TDST Support serves as a good intermediate stop. While the pattern is still unfolding on the daily chart,  the bullish condition still exists from the weekly. Other than the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, the TD exhaustion points have not shown up yet. However, from the monthly AAPL chart, the first ’13’ has been recorded through TD Sell Countdown. If Apple stays bullish, a cluster of exhaustion points will come in December and January, 2015 for the monthly charts. Therefore, in the intermediate term, unless 94.84 is broken to the downside, Apple is still in good field position.

For the equity markets, the S&P 500 (SPX) is drifting lower. With the Fed meeting ahead this Wednesday, the active TD Buy Setup could indicate a reversal as soon as this Thursday. Opinions aside, the TD counts will help dictate the probable direction. More below:


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip back to bullish if SPX closes above 1997.36, Monday September 15, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 10.51.31 AMThe short term SPX has switch from sideways to higher to sideways to lower. Nevertheless, the overbought condition is being worked off and further upside is expected to continue in the days ahead.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Same as Short Term Outlook, switch to bullish if SPX closes above 1997.36 on Monday, September 15, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.04.48 AMThere is an active TD Buy Setup @ 5 on the SPX, but the trading range is relatively narrow and it would not take much to disrupt the count prior to completing the minimum of a ‘9’ count. If the current TD Buy Setup does finalize with a ‘9’ this Thursday, September 17, 2014, that would make an ideal point for the SPX to resume the uptrend in the Fed announcement aftermath.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the SPX cannot close above 1988.40 on Friday, September 19, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.14.31 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.16.05 AM Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.18.11 AM

Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 11.18.56 AMIt would not take much for the weekly SPX to flip to neutral. If the SPX does flip to neutral, this would be a good signal equity markets are beginning to consolidate longer term, as a TD Sell Setup trend is having difficulty recording a ‘9’ count. Other major indices have similar setups.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 


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Monday, September 8, 2014

The surprise QE announcement by Mario Draghi and the weak non-farm payroll numbers kept equities higher. Data for the upcoming week is light and without any obvious catalyst, the sights for the S&P 500 (SPX) are at the 2027.81 TD Trend Factor level. It is considered an important level, and it especially powerful if combined with TD Sequential. DeMark had experimented with Fibonacci ratios and came up with these TD Trend Factor levels he often cites in the media as major reversal points. Just as the previous 1979.49 TD Trend Factor on the SPX, recorded back in July 3, 2014, these levels often provide equities angst. But they should always be paired with TD Sequential to strengthen the price exhaustion signal.

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX matches or exceeds 2011.17 intraday and does not close below 2005.56 mid-session OR bearish if SPX closes below 1997.71 end of day. 


Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.07.43 PMSince the second ’13’ recorded on August 26, 2014, there has been a set of four alternating price flips, indicating the consolidation efforts of the SPX equities. If the short term 4 hour SPX is successful in turning bullish, the next TD Trend Factor has been identified at 2027.81. Once again, TD Trend Factors are Fibonacci related stopping points, and combined with TD Sequential, it offers added confidence of a possible reversal.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1997.71, same as Short Term Outlook.

Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.10.10 PMDespite the sideways action, the SPX never recorded a reverse price flip. This keeps the trajectory towards the upside. if so, the bigger battle may occur at the TD Trend Factor at 2027.81.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1955.06 on Friday, September 12, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.25.05 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.27.17 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.29.37 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.30.09 PMWith the exception of the Russell 2000, all the weekly charts are still firmly bullish and exhaustion levels are still weeks away.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014.


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Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 12.52.17 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.02.10 PMThis week’s primary events revolve around the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US non-farm payroll release. The EUR/USD cross has been sinking as the vast economic deterioration in the Eurozone has brought up the prospects of an official Quantitative Easing program. The question now will this Thursday’s ECB meeting will halt the EUR/USD slide. At this point, it is doubtful the ECB will take major steps to ease monetary policy. While it seems likely the euro will continue to struggle, the daily and weekly TD charts suggest the euro is about to begin efforts to consolidate. Even from the confluence of the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is still making new lows, but the bet is for a “buy the rumor and sell the news’ move. Also supporting this is the weekly EUR/USD is on a TD Buy Setup @8, which has been already been ‘perfected’, further indicating a low is near.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX, on Tuesday, September 2, 2014, closes below 1998.06 mid-session or 1997.02 on the close. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.27.12 PMThe short term 4 hour SPX officially took a neutral stance on the close on August 29, 2014, with a bearish price flip on the close. Both TD Sell Countdown and TD Sell Combo recorded ’13’s’ and depending on how equities respond, “Neutral” and “Bearish” are the only options for the moment in the short term.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 2000.02 on Tuesday, September 2, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.40.24 PMThe rally stays in bullish form with TD Sell Countdown, the second component of TD Sequential, has suggested the up trend still has more to go. However TD Combo Sell can record a ’13’ in the days ahead. Trading above SPX 1985 will keep the short/intermediate term intact until further notice.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Turn to neutral if SPX closes below 1931.59, or if Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1131.35, Friday, September 5, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.40.40 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.42.04 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.43.55 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.50.11 PMThe premise here is the RUT is playing catch-up to the rest of the indices. If the SPX begins to show trouble, it would show up in the Russell first.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.57.09 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.59.03 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 2.00.03 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 2.01.48 PMThe charts above give the big picture view from the bottom in 2009. Since 2012, the SPX has not experienced a bearish price flip, but with another set of ’13’ count confluences, expectations are for a termination point as soon as this month. The Nasdaq can also complete a TD Combo Sell ’13’ this month.


 

 

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