A lot has occurred during the blog absence. Extracting DeMark signals with reality, the notable pullback that began on July 25th, ideally should have happened on June 30th, when the final TD Sell Countdown @13 was penciled in just under the S&P 500 (SPX) TD Trend Factor at 1979.49. What worked was the retracement rally on August 8th, as the SPX daily TD Buy Setup landed on a “9” count. The setup now is to look for higher highs on the SPX, which is explained more in depth in the outlook section. But the longer term picture between now and October still looks muddy as the monthly approaches a TD Sell Countdown @13. However, “muddy” doesn’t exactly need to equate to disaster. The markets could just enter a period of frustration where it goes no where and looking out in time, that’s the prognostication.
On a personal note, this blog will see some changes: The first is the chart notations are hopefully cleaner. I reduced the amount of clutter and TD Combo won’t be notated until the counts commence at “10”. The second is the blog won’t be a daily affair. I have several other outside projects and time devoted to this blog needs to be reduced. However, I will find other ways to stay engaged on a daily basis.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1954.92 on the close of Monday, August 17th.
There are a few forces at work here on the short term path for the SPX. Utilizing the four hour timeframe, the 1946.51 TD Propulsion level has been breached to the upside, which indicates the propensity for the SPX to see fresh highs. Does not need to happen right away but perhaps through a test of the lows near TDST Support at 1916.41. We can get confirmation of this by observing what happens now that TD Sell Countdown has recorded a “9” count right near the 61.8% retracement level at 1958.30. If the SPX “hangs out” at the current levels, that’s a good sign the market wants to go higher.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if SPX if the current TD Sell Setup is reversed before a “9” count. For Monday, August 17th, the level is 1933.75.
The daily SPX is currently on a momentum run, as dictated by TD Sell Setup, currently on the “5”count. Expectations are for the SPX to follow through and see if the TD Sell Setup can terminate just under the 1984.85 TDST Resistance. This will be a good area for the SPX to pause before looking to achieve new highs. On the flip side, if the active TD Sell Setup is unable to complete a full count and reverse flips, this will require further examination on the market’s intentions.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bullish if SPX closes above 1978.34 or bearish if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 22nd.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th.