Google (GOOG) is also one of the stocks at the tail end of their counts. Unlike the analysis of last Friday’s analysis of Netflix, utilizing timeframe confluence, Google is best analyzed through timeframe continuity. This occurs when one timeframe reaches price exhaustion and another is still active. In Google’s case, the daily chart will likely reach a “9” count TD Sell Setup. It is not “perfected”. Therefore, a proper TD Sell Setup would be for Google to equal or exceed 582.45 first. Assuming this happens, the observation begins to see if GOOG can lateral into the TD Sell Countdown phase and continue higher. This will flag the weekly Google as the primary chart, as there is additional upside available – up to 608.33. If the current daily TD Sell Setup does signal a high, closing under 556.33 this week will reverse price flip the weekly and a close below 543.01, the tentative TDST Support, will damage the bull case significantly.
Market Update: The S&P 500 (SPX) is on the verge of completing the second “13” on the daily chart. If recorded and the shorter term 4 hour SPX has trouble maintaining momentum starting tomorrow, quick adjustments will need to be deployed as equity markets are tilting towards the bearish edge as more price exhaustion signals come through. This Thursday’s US job report should bring the next bout of volatility. Friday is a US holiday.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Back to neutral if SPX closes below 1957.26.
The 4 hour SPX has two competing bullish paths – one is through the renewed TD Sell Setup. A close above 1957.26 will suggest upward momentum is intact. The other is through TD Sell Countdown or TD Combo Sell. A close below 1957.26 suggests the SPX needs additional time to consolidate before tackling the upside again.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if SPX closes below 1949.48.
The daily SPX can record a TD Sell Countdown “13” by closing at 1959.89 or higher today. If printed, the “13” will signal the equities are beginning to become vulnerable to a selloff. Note where the bearish price flip level is at – 1949.48. Most traders will see that level as minor support, but since it is happening on the weekly timeframe, closing under 1949.49 can have longer term implications.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs on July 3, 2014: SPX closes below 1949.44, Nasdaq closes below 4321.40, Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1165.21.
While the SPX and the Dow are at their “9” count TD Sell Setups, both the Nasdaq and the RUT have active TD Sell Setups. Therefore, one sure sign the weekly timeframe is no longer bullish if all the major indices price flip bearish.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).