The launch of Apple’s new iPhone 6 series has provided some volatility to Apple’s (AAPL) stock last Tuesday, September 9. Utilizing all the timeframes, Apple has a bullish edge. From the daily chart, there were a series of exhaustion points to warn a “sell the news” event was probable. The 94.84 TDST Support serves as a good intermediate stop. While the pattern is still unfolding on the daily chart, the bullish condition still exists from the weekly. Other than the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, the TD exhaustion points have not shown up yet. However, from the monthly AAPL chart, the first ’13’ has been recorded through TD Sell Countdown. If Apple stays bullish, a cluster of exhaustion points will come in December and January, 2015 for the monthly charts. Therefore, in the intermediate term, unless 94.84 is broken to the downside, Apple is still in good field position.
For the equity markets, the S&P 500 (SPX) is drifting lower. With the Fed meeting ahead this Wednesday, the active TD Buy Setup could indicate a reversal as soon as this Thursday. Opinions aside, the TD counts will help dictate the probable direction. More below:
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Flip back to bullish if SPX closes above 1997.36, Monday September 15, 2014.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Same as Short Term Outlook, switch to bullish if SPX closes above 1997.36 on Monday, September 15, 2014.
There is an active TD Buy Setup @ 5 on the SPX, but the trading range is relatively narrow and it would not take much to disrupt the count prior to completing the minimum of a ‘9’ count. If the current TD Buy Setup does finalize with a ‘9’ this Thursday, September 17, 2014, that would make an ideal point for the SPX to resume the uptrend in the Fed announcement aftermath.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Change to neutral if the SPX cannot close above 1988.40 on Friday, September 19, 2014.
It would not take much for the weekly SPX to flip to neutral. If the SPX does flip to neutral, this would be a good signal equity markets are beginning to consolidate longer term, as a TD Sell Setup trend is having difficulty recording a ‘9’ count. Other major indices have similar setups.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014.