Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-26 at 8.08.17 PMThe daily Tesla (TSLA) chart has a nice rhythm when determining a short/intermediate top. In the last three completed TD Sell Setups, the recorded ‘9’ count, denoted by the blue down arrow, has helped provide the timing of TSLA’s pullback. The most recent ’9’ count is now combined with TD Sell Countdown @13 today. Following the same script, Tesla should pullback here and the ideal buy point would be the rising trendline, which is now aligned with the 50 day moving average.

An historic day for the S&P 500 (SPX) at 2000 – feels funny saying that.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1998.19.

Screen Shot 2014-08-26 at 8.25.58 PMMarkets can’t go straight up and if there is ceiling to the SPX, the SPX 2000 level is it. TD Sell Countdown is one count away from a ’13’.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1992.37 today.

Screen Shot 2014-08-26 at 8.39.25 PMSPX still has strength and now threatening to go into TD Sell Countdown mode. Although I do not place much emphasis on it, the TD Risk Level, normally used as stops, is still valid as the SPX close is below 2002.70.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 29, 2014.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29, 2014. 


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Monday, August 25, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.25.42 PMThe 10-year US Treasury yield as represented by the monthly CBOE 10-year Treasury Index (TNX) is still crawling lower. This is helping the equity markets stay afloat longer than they probably should. With the current monthly DeMark count at TD Buy Setup at ‘6’, a perfected ‘8’ count can occur in October, several basis points above the 16.14 TDST Support level. From there, rates can either spike even higher or continue to drift sideways. Either way, the low made back in July 2012 is expected to hold. Equity markets should begin to pull back this week.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1992.31.

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.31.59 PMIt is now prudent to take a cautionary approach by setting the bar higher on the TD counts. The SPX would now need to clear new closing highs at this point to stay on the bullish side.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1981.60 today.

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.36.19 PMThe daily SPX TD Sell Setup has recorded a ‘9’ count last Thursday. It is now we wait for the next outcome – which is likely a pullback, followed by new highs.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 29, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.39.35 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.42.55 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.50.35 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 9.51.48 PMThe weekly SPX reasserted itself with a bullish price flip, along with the secondary indices – Dow (DJI), Nasdaq (COMPQ), Russell 2000 (RUT). The RUT has had a bit more trouble staying bullish since the TD Combo ’13’ on March 3, 2014. The Nasdaq chart is the one current outlier. The highs made by the Nasdaq last week has ‘perfected’ the TD Sell Setup. If the Nasdaq begins to deviate from the expected bullish run up, there is a reasonable chance markets are displaying a topping process that are not concurrent with other indices.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th. 


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Friday, August 21, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.08.28 PM Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.08.07 PMThe daily chart of Apple (AAPL), similar to the S&P 500 (SPX), is running into a price exhaustion wall. Also similar is a large degree selloff is not expected just yet, taking the weekly chart’s TD Sequential counts have not hit a maximum point. Apple’s major event will be on September 9th, where they will likely debut the iPhone 6 and maybe some other peripheral products. Some consolidation leading up to the event will likely set up another run higher. Expect another analysis update check, leading up to the media day event.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1986.47 today. 

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.34.12 PMTD Combo Sell is one count away from recording a ’13”. Even though the market needs to relieve the overbought conditions, it’s bullish until it officially isn’t – at 1986.47.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if daily SPX closes below 1971.74.

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 9.39.56 PMTD Sequential’s first component, TD Sell Setup has registered a ‘9’ count and typically some form of price consolidation will occur. But given the vertical nature of the move, and the short term 4 hour SPX chart on an extended TD Sell Setup run, this suggests there is more upside after an expected pullback around today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 1978.34 or bearish if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 22nd. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th. 


 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday, August 21, 2014

Update to the prelude to the Jackson Hole gathering, along with the Janet Yellen address this Friday. The DeMark TD Sequential counts on both the S&P 500 (SPX) 4 hour and daily timeframe will show price exhaustion signals as soon as Friday. Both are in collusion for a fall. But since the daily TDST Resistance at 1984.85 has been breached, there will be consideration to buy pullbacks yet again.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1981.48 at the close of Thursday’s session.

Screen Shot 2014-08-20 at 10.43.55 PMThe SPX 4 hour short term timeframe is on a power momentum move, as TD Sell Setup has recorded 17 consecutive bars higher. It is nearing a termination point with TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell closing in on their respective 13’s. The first can occur with TD Combo Sell recording a possible ’13’ on Friday.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX daily closes below 1955.06.

Screen Shot 2014-08-20 at 10.44.12 PMTD Sell Setup has been ‘perfected’ and can reach a ‘9’ count Thursday, setting up for the beginning of some kind of price give back this Friday. Now with the SPX trading above the TDST Resistance at 1984.85, a pullback under it should result in another run for higher highs.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 1978.34 or bearish if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 22nd. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th. 


 

 

 

 

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Monday, August 18, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 at 8.00.09 PMA lot has occurred during the blog absence. Extracting DeMark signals with reality, the notable pullback that began on July 25th, ideally should have happened on June 30th, when the final TD Sell Countdown @13 was penciled in just under the S&P 500 (SPX) TD Trend Factor at 1979.49. What worked was the retracement rally on August 8th, as the SPX daily TD Buy Setup landed on a “9” count. The setup now is to look for higher highs on the SPX, which is explained more in depth in the outlook section. But the longer term picture between now and October still looks muddy as the monthly approaches a TD Sell Countdown @13. However, “muddy” doesn’t exactly need to equate to disaster. The markets could just enter a period of frustration where it goes no where and looking out in time, that’s the prognostication.

On a personal note, this blog will see some changes: The first is the chart notations are hopefully cleaner. I reduced the amount of clutter and TD Combo won’t be notated until the counts commence at “10”. The second is the blog won’t be a daily affair. I have several other outside projects and time devoted to this blog needs to be reduced. However, I will find other ways to stay engaged on a daily basis.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1954.92 on the close of Monday, August 17th. 

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 at 5.05.30 PMThere are a few forces at work here on the short term path for the SPX. Utilizing the four hour timeframe, the 1946.51 TD Propulsion level has been breached to the upside, which indicates the propensity for the SPX to see fresh highs. Does not need to happen right away but perhaps through a test of the lows near TDST Support at 1916.41. We can get confirmation of this by observing what happens now that TD Sell Countdown has recorded a “9” count right near the 61.8% retracement level at 1958.30. If the SPX “hangs out” at the current levels, that’s a good sign the market wants to go higher.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX if the current TD Sell Setup is reversed before a “9” count. For Monday, August 17th, the level is 1933.75.

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 at 6.28.27 PMThe daily SPX is currently on a momentum run, as dictated by TD Sell Setup, currently on the “5”count. Expectations are for the SPX to follow through and see if the TD Sell Setup can terminate just under the 1984.85 TDST Resistance. This will be a good area for the SPX to pause before looking to achieve new highs. On the flip side, if the active TD Sell Setup is unable to complete a full count and reverse flips, this will require further examination on the market’s intentions.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 1978.34 or bearish if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 22nd. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th. 


 

 

 

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Monday, July 7, 2014

There is another threat of the S&P 500 (SPX) recycling upwards through the daily charts. The 4 hour SPX will record a “9” count TD Sell Setup today, along with TD Sell Countdown/TD Combo Sell closing in on “13’s”. But by closing above the TD Trend Factor at 1979.79, this now indicates any pullbacks can be bought, stretching the market even further. From this vantage point, the monthly SPX is coming into a final “13” as soon as August. Note: Blog will be on vacation until early August. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1974.20 today.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1960.23 today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1936.16 on July 11, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.40 on July 31, 2014. 


 

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Thursday, July 3, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-07-02 at 10.10.03 PMTaking inventory on the futures again. The S&P 500 e-minis (ES) have reached full price exhaustion and awaiting a bearish flip to turn things around. The Nasdaq e-minis (NQ) has recorded a “13” on TD Combo Sell and one count short of finishing TD Sell Countdown – could be today. The lone outlier is the Russell 2000 mini (TF), which is running solely on a TD Sell Setup @4. This is signaling some market turbulence is to be expected.

Market Update:  The jobs report today is indicating the economy has the ability to gain some footing going forward with a 288,000 payroll print. If this number is baked in the markets, equities should fail at some point today. If the cash S&P 500 (SPX) holds together, and closes above 1979.79, the TD Trend Factor, the case for a reversal weakens, as the TD counts are recycling again. It’s a short session for US markets today.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1975.25  today.

Screen Shot 2014-07-02 at 10.26.31 PMThe 4 hour SPX still has an active TD Sell Setup, currently at count “7’. This allows for another stab to the upside.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX trades above 1979.79 and closes below that level. Bearish if SPX closes below 1960.96.

Screen Shot 2014-07-02 at 10.28.31 PMIt’s a waiting game at this point. The close above/below 1979.79 is especially important today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if all of the following occurs on July 3, 2014: SPX closes below 1949.44, Nasdaq closes below 4321.40, Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1165.21 (updated June 30, 2014).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).  


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